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Yen Gains as Traders Pare Carry Trades on Credit-Market Losses

By Ye Xie and Bo Nielsen

Jan. 11 (Bloomberg) -- The yen rose against 14 of the 16 most-active currencies as signs credit-market losses are worsening prompted investors to pare carry trades, in which they use funds from Japan to buy higher-yielding assets.

The yen had its biggest gain against the euro in a week as UBS AG said 2008 will probably be another ``difficult'' year for financial services companies and the New York Times reported Merrill Lynch & Co. may write down $15 billion from mortgage- related losses. The Canadian dollar fell versus all 16 major currencies after the economy unexpectedly lost jobs last month.

``The market is very skittish,'' said Mark Meadows, a strategist at currency-trading company Tempus Consulting Inc. in Washington. ``Nobody knows how much the banks lost on subprime mortgages. When we hear this kind of news, stocks sell off and the yen strengthens.''

The yen advanced to 108.99 per dollar at 4 p.m. in New York, from 109.33 yesterday, paring this week's decline to 0.4 percent. It gained to 161.05 per euro, from 161.88, reducing the weekly fall to 0.6 percent. The U.S. currency rose to $1.4776 against the euro, from $1.4804.

South Africa's rand had the biggest advance among the 16 major currencies, rising to a one-month high of 6.7264 per dollar after gold rose to a record $900 per ounce. The nation produces about one-tenth of the world's gold, which is its biggest export.

Canada's Dollar

Canada's dollar fell for a sixth day against its U.S. counterpart, the longest losing streak since March, as the economy lost 18,700 jobs in December. The Canadian currency touched C$1.0222 per U.S. dollar, the lowest since Dec. 17.

The pound fell to as low as 75.87 pence per euro, the weakest since the single currency's introduction in 1999, before trading at 75.53, from 75.48 yesterday.

Japan's Nikkei 225 Stock Index fell 1.9 percent to 14,110.79, the lowest since Nov. 15, 2005. Stocks in the U.S. and Europe weakened. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index declined 1.3 percent.

Investors exited carry trades, in which they get funds in a country with low borrowing costs and invest in one with higher interest rates, earning the spread between the two. The risk is that currency moves erase profits.

Bank of Japan Governor Toshihiko Fukui said the country's economic growth is slowing ``for the time being'' as housing investment declines.

`Risk Aversion'

``The yen's only strength comes from risk aversion,'' said Boris Schlossberg, senior currency strategist in New York at currency dealer DailyFX.com. ``2008 will be the year when interest rates globally will compress, and that's negative for the carry trades.''

The yen will trade between 107 and 111 per dollar in the next two weeks, Schlossberg said.

The Australian dollar, a favorite of the carry trade, depreciated 0.8 percent to 97.12 yen. It was the second-worst performer among the major currencies.

Japan's benchmark interest rate of 0.5 percent is the lowest among major economies. The interest rate is 6.75 percent in Australia.

Merrill is trying to raise $4 billion from investors in the U.S., Asia and the Middle East to shore up its finances, the New York Times said, citing people it said were briefed on the plan.

Zurich-based UBS, Europe's biggest bank by assets, urged shareholders to support its plan to raise 13 billion Swiss francs ($11.8 billion) from Government of Singapore Investment Corp. and an unidentified Middle Eastern investor, according to a letter posted on its Web site.

`Strengthening Further'

``Merrill's writedown is unsettling,'' said Carl Forcheski, vice president on the corporate currency sales desk at Societe Generale SA in New York. ``The fact that more of this kind of bad news is coming prolongs the agony in the market. The yen is vulnerable to strengthening further.''

The yen may touch 107.23 per dollar in the next two weeks, Forcheski said. The Japanese currency touched that level on Nov. 26, the strongest since June 2005.

One-month implied volatility for the yen against the pound rose to 14.65 percent, from 14.2 percent yesterday. A rise in volatility tends to discourage carry trades as it makes profits more unpredictable.

`Low-Yielding Currencies'

``We would expect the low-yielding currencies to continue to perform well,'' said Derek Halpenny, senior currency strategist in London at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi.

The dollar posted a third consecutive weekly decline versus the euro, the longest losing streak since the period ended Nov. 9. Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke yesterday said more interest-rate cuts ``may well be necessary'' to offset ``downside risks'' to the U.S. economy. Fed Governor Frederic Mishkin said today the central bank will act ``decisively'' on interest rates.

Fed funds futures contracts on the Chicago Board of Trade show 36 percent odds the Fed will cut its 4.25 percent target rate for overnight bank loans to 3.5 percent this month, compared with no chance yesterday. The odds of a half-point cut are 64 percent.

``I'm in the dollar-bear camp,'' said Jeff Gladstein, global head of foreign-exchange trading at AIG Financial Products in Wilton, Connecticut. ``Economic standings in other countries are faring better than ours. The dollar needs to depreciate another 4 to 5 percent before it starts to offer value.''

Commerzbank AG, Germany's second-biggest bank, lowered its forecast for the dollar, predicting it will fall to $1.54 per euro this quarter. Its previous forecast was $1.47. The U.S. currency fell to a record low of $1.4967 on Nov. 23.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at Yxie6@bloomberg.netBo Nielsen in New York at bnielsen4@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: January 11, 2008 16:03 EST