Jan. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Erosion of the U.S. housing market and a weaker dollar might drive the American economy into recession this year and stall world economic growth in 2009, United Nations economists said.

``There is a clear and present danger of the world economy coming to a near standstill,'' the UN's Department of Economic and Social Affairs said in an analysis released today in New York. ``The domino effect of a U.S. recession would be to knock down export growth from China, Europe and Japan, in turn reducing their demand for exports from developing countries.''

Global economic growth this year will be 3.4 percent, the UN said, down from 3.7 percent in 2007. Under a ``pessimistic scenario,'' a 15 percent drop in U.S. house prices and a ``hard landing' for the dollar might lead to 0.1 percent contraction in the U.S. economy and 1.6 percent global growth, the report said.

Chief UN economist Rob Vos said in an interview there was a ``50-50'' chance the U.S. economy will have back-to-back quarters of negative growth in 2008, which is one definition of a recession.

The world economy might not expand at all in 2009 in those circumstances, Vos said.

``A global demand stimulus will be needed if the slowdown in the U.S. economy is not to slip into recession and spill over into the rest off the world,'' the UN said. ``Governments should take joint action to avoid a rout of the dollar. International action should entail an agreed exchange rate realignment which would foster a soft rather than a hard landing.''

Coordination

Vos said the danger of a global recession wasn't something U.S. policy makers could deal with by themselves. Europe, Japan, China, Brazil, India and oil exporting countries might need to stimulate their economies to absorb exports from the U.S. and developing nations.

The problem, Vos said, is that there is no ``well-defined mechanism to coordinate these policies.''

The UN economists said that in 2008 the economy would grow by 2 percent in the U.S., 2.5 percent in the European Union, 1.7 percent in Japan, 6.2 percent in Africa, 10.1 percent in China, 5.2 percent in South America and 8.2 percent in Russia. Only Africa is expected to grow at a faster rate this year than in 2007, when it expanded 5.8 percent, according to the UN.

The UN forecast 1.7 percent inflation in industrial nations in 2008, compared with 1.9 percent last year, a decrease in the growth of world trade to 7.1 percent this year from 7.2 percent in 2007 and oil prices staying near $100 a barrel for the remainder of the year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Varner at the United Nations at wvarner@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 9, 2008 12:00 EST