By Grant Smith and Gavin Evans
Nov. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil declined for a second day in New York on concern slower U.S. economic growth will curb fuel demand in the world's biggest energy user.
Oil is forecast to fall next week as near-record prices hinder demand, according to a Bloomberg News survey of analysts. Crude futures also slipped as the dollar recovered from a record low versus the euro. The U.S. currency's slide this year has helped spur oil's 60 percent rally, by increasing the appeal of commodities as an inflation hedge.
``We have uncertainty regarding growth prospects in the U.S.,'' said Tobias Merath, a commodities analyst at Credit Suisse Group in Zurich. ``We might reach $100 but prices won't stay there a long time as the U.S. economy is slowing.''
Crude oil for January delivery fell as much as $1.13, or 1.2 percent, from the Nov. 21 close, to $96.16 a barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It traded at $96.32 as of 11:10 a.m. in London.
Floor trading in New York was closed for yesterday's holiday and electronic trades will be included in today's session for settlement purposes.
Futures declined from a record $99.29 on Nov. 21 after the Conference Board's index of leading economic indicators fell a bigger-than-forecast 0.5 percent in October and share prices dropped on concern mortgage defaults will lead to further losses.
The U.S. national average pump price for regular gasoline fell 0.1 cent to $3.086 a gallon, the vehicle association AAA said today on its Web site.
Economic Outlook
The day before, Federal Reserve minutes showed officials cut 2008 growth expectations to 1.8 percent, the forecast mid- point, from the 2.5 percent to 2.75 percent picked in June. The new rate would be the lowest since the 2001 recession.
Twelve of 28 analysts surveyed, or 43 percent, said oil prices will drop through Nov. 30, according to the Bloomberg survey. Nine, or 33 percent, said prices will rise and seven forecast little change.
Brent crude oil for January settlement was at $94.24 barrel, down 26 cents, on the London-based ICE Futures Europe exchange. The contract reached a record $96.53 on Nov. 21.
The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries will load 24.5 million barrels a day in the four weeks to Dec. 8, compared with 23.8 million barrels in the month ended Nov. 10, Oil Movements said. It will be OPEC's 14th consecutive increase and the biggest this year, according to the company.
`Raise Quotas'
``When they meet on Dec. 5 in Abu Dhabi, it's possible they may raise quotas perhaps by another half a million barrels a day,'' Mike Wittner, a London-based energy analyst with Societe Generale SA said in an interview in Singapore. ``The markets will be quite balanced in the first quarter.''
Oil climbed to records this month as the sliding dollar and falling equity prices prompted a ``scramble'' by investors for physical assets including gold and silver, said Rowan Menzies, head of research at Commodity Warrants Australia in Sydney.
The U.S. currency climbed to $1.4795 per euro, after earlier dropping to $1.4967, the weakest since the single European currency's debut in 1999.
Prices also rose the past month after stockpiles in the U.S., the world's biggest user, fell four of the past five weeks. Supplies unexpectedly declined last week as imports fell from a three-month high and fuel deliveries jumped ahead of the holiday weekend.
``The big stock draws we have seen since the summer, and been pushing prices upward, had mainly been in crude oil,'' said Societe Generale's Wittner. ``As long as we don't have a severe winter, and we have normal weather we would be in good shape as far as heating oil goes.''
-- With reporting by Paul Gordon and Nesa Subrahmaniyan in Singapore, Editor: Cunningham (jpb/kls)
To contact the reporter on this story: Grant Smith in London at gsmith52@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 23, 2007 06:14 EST
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