By Aaron Kirchfeld
Oct. 23 (Bloomberg) -- Deutsche Bank AG, Germany’s biggest bank, doesn’t need to raise capital to buy parts of ABN Amro Holding NV and German wealth manager Sal. Oppenheim Jr. & Cie., Morgan Stanley analysts said.
The Frankfurt-based bank can make the acquisitions without selling shares while keeping its core tier 1 ratio, a measure of financial strength, above 8 percent, Morgan Stanley analysts led by Huw van Steenis said in a note to investors today.
Deutsche Bank reached a preliminary agreement on Oct. 20 to buy ABN Amro Holding NV’s commercial-banking operations in the Netherlands for an undisclosed price. The German lender may also buy about 75 percent of Sal. Oppenheim, Germany’s biggest independent wealth manager, by the end of the month, two people familiar with the matter said on Oct. 5.
Deutsche Bank may decide to use acquisitions as an opportunity to raise funds and meet investor expectations for a capital buffer of 8.5 percent to 9 percent, compared with the company’s estimated 8.1 percent, van Steenis wrote. To stay above 8 percent, the German bank may have to seek shareholder approval for a capital increase if it decides to buy all of Deutsche Postbank AG in the next six months, in addition to Sal. Oppenheim and the ABN Amro units, Morgan Stanley said.
Chief Executive Officer Josef Ackermann is trying to cut reliance on investment banking by buying companies with more stable revenue. Acquiring Sal. Oppenheim, ABN’s commercial- banking business and a majority in Postbank may double the retail-banking unit’s contribution to overall pretax profit to 19 percent and asset and wealth management to 6 percent by 2012, Morgan Stanley said.
Improving the ‘Mix’
“We do think this would materially improve the mix of so- called ‘stable earnings’ units, although investment banking on our estimates remains above half,” van Steenis wrote.
Deutsche Bank spokesman Armin Niedermeier declined to comment.
Sal. Oppenheim’s wealth business would add about 150 million euros ($225 million) in operating profit annually, or 2 percent to 3 percent to net income, Morgan Stanley estimated. ABN may add about 2 percent to 3 percent to earnings, the analysts said, adding that Deutsche Bank suggested the business should generate 140 million euros in pretax profit a year.
Chief Financial Officer Stefan Krause said on Oct. 1 he is confident Deutsche Bank can raise funding from the market to finance purchases.
To contact the reporters on this story: Aaron Kirchfeld in Frankfurt at akirchfeld@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: October 23, 2009 07:04 EDT
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