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Hillary Clinton Faces Challenge of Iowa's `Retail' Politics

By Kristin Jensen

Jan. 29 (Bloomberg) -- For many presidential hopefuls, the first campaign trip to Iowa is about pancake breakfasts, church socials and quiet chats with voters. Not so for Hillary Clinton.

Hundreds of reporters followed Clinton to events in Des Moines and Davenport that overflowed with Iowa voters yesterday and Saturday. A small meet-and-greet in Cedar Rapids on Saturday night attracted ``unprecedented'' interest, causing organizer Marcia Rogers to open her home to more than 100 people.

It is this star appeal that makes the former first lady the front-runner for the Democratic presidential nomination; she leads in the national polls, expects to raise record sums of money and has more political and organizational support around the country than her rivals.

The road to the nomination, however, is shaped by retail politics -- face-to-face meetings with small groups of voters -- in the important initial contests, which start with the Iowa caucuses next January. That's why this weekend she was in the state that poses considerable challenges to her candidacy.

``Iowans aren't going to vote for you unless they've met you six times,'' said Michael Gartner, a longtime Iowa newspaper editor and owner of the minor league baseball team in Des Moines. Caucus voters believe it's their ``God-given right'' to have intimate meetings with candidates in their living rooms, he said. ``She's going to have to do that too.''

Clinton, 59, clearly understands the demands of the state, where she trails rivals John Edwards and Barack Obama in early polls and faces questions about her 2002 vote to give President George W. Bush the authority to use military force against Iraq. The war is deeply unpopular in Iowa.

`The Iowa Way'

``I will be coming back to Iowa time and time again,'' Clinton told reporters yesterday in Davenport. ``I intend to do this the Iowa way, in people's living rooms and diners and church basements and union halls and even media centers and libraries.''

While most experts say Clinton could survive a defeat in Iowa, this is a state that can make or break a national frontrunner. In 1976, Democrat Jimmy Carter won a surprise victory in the caucuses, setting the stage for his successful run for the presidency. In 2004, Democrat John Kerry's come-from- behind win in the state knocked Howard Dean off his game, prompting what became known as the Dean scream that torpedoed both his frontrunner status and his presidential hopes.

In 1992, her husband, Bill Clinton, and other Democratic hopefuls ceded the Iowa caucuses to home state Senator Tom Harkin; this time none of the Democrats is conceding Iowa to its popular former governor, Tom Vilsack, who also is running.

Competition

``My participating in the Iowa caucuses is the only thing I'll ever do in politics that Bill has not done, so it's very special to me,'' she said yesterday at an event in Davenport that had to be moved to a hall at the Mississippi Valley Fairgrounds from a local restaurant because of the crowd.

She faces tough competition in the state. Vilsack, 56, left office after two terms with an approval rating of 69 percent in a Des Moines Register poll taken last week. Edwards, 53, a former vice presidential candidate and North Carolina senator, is leading after frequent visits. He also maintained the organization he formed when he sought the presidency in 2004 and finished second in Iowa.

Obama, 45, the fresh face in the field, represents neighboring Illinois in the U.S. Senate and made waves when he turned up last year at Harkin's steak fry.

Making her first visit to Iowa since 2003, Clinton is starting from behind. A Jan. 15-16 survey by Zogby International of 596 likely Iowa Democratic voters found Edwards leading with 27 percent, to Obama's 17 percent and 16 percent each for Vilsack and Clinton.

Earning Votes

``You don't get a vote in Iowa; you earn a vote in Iowa,'' said Rachel Caufield, a politics professor at Drake University in Des Moines. ``That's where she has some catching up to do.''

Even as she makes more visits, Clinton will confront a challenge of simple logistics. As a former first lady and the first serious female presidential contender, she brings along both Secret Service protection and an intense media spotlight.

Other candidates may be able to enter Iowans' living rooms less encumbered. Edwards is now a familiar sight. And while Obama can spark a media circus, he still roams largely entourage-free. The night before Clinton began her ``Conversations with Iowans'' tour, Obama walked through Chicago's O'Hare airport alone -- aside from a steady stream of autograph seekers and picture takers.

``It's hard when Hillary has Secret Service with her, and it's also hard when there are 200 cameras pointed at her,'' said Terry McAuliffe, Clinton's campaign chairman. ``We're going to have to deal with that.''

Individual Attention

This weekend, Clinton tried to compensate for the size of the crowds by devoting time to individual voters after events. At town hall meetings in Des Moines and Davenport, she stayed around for more than 30 minutes afterward to talk with people. At the Cedar Rapids house party, she made sure to meet every person in the room, Rogers said.

``She was tireless,'' said Rogers, who estimates she turned away as many guests as she invited. Clinton's efforts to connect with individuals will pay off, she said. ``People left inspired. And people in Iowa listen to their friends and neighbors.''

At the events, Clinton addressed her 2002 vote to authorize military action against Iraq.

Iraq Vote

Bush ``took the authority that I and others gave him and he misused it, and I regret that deeply,'' Clinton said in Davenport. ``He went with an ill-conceived plan and an incompetently executed strategy.''

Edwards has renounced his 2002 vote; Obama wasn't yet in the Senate and has been against the war from the start.

With her financial and political support, Clinton has the potential to recover if she loses in Iowa. Both Ronald Reagan in 1980 and George H.W. Bush in 1988 were upset in the Iowa caucuses and went on to win the nomination and the presidency.

Losing Iowa still entails major risks for Clinton. A defeat in the first contest would magnify fears of some Democrats that she is too polarizing to win a general election.

In that scenario, a win by Obama or Edwards would give either candidate a big advantage in the next round of caucuses and primaries scheduled within the following several weeks.

``Given how front loaded the primary calendar looks like it will be, the winner in Iowa will get a huge boost,'' said Peverill Squire, a political science professor at the University of Iowa in Iowa City.

To contact the reporter on this story: Kristin Jensen in Washington at kjensen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 29, 2007 00:12 EST

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