By Haslinda Amin and Liza Lin
May 3 (Bloomberg) -- Soaring rice prices are less likely to cause instability in China, India and other major Asian economies because they are buffered by domestic production of the cereal, Singapore's Minister Mentor Lee Kuan Yew said.
Global food prices surged 57 percent from a year earlier in March, according to a United Nations report, and the World Bank has said the increases may trigger civil disturbances in 33 countries. Deadly food riots, such as those in Egypt, Haiti and Cameroon this year, aren't likely to occur in Asia, Lee said.
``I don't think it will crop up in the big countries -- China, Vietnam, India,'' Lee, 84, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``I do not see rice as a big issue for the Asian countries, the big Asian countries where you could have upheavals.''
The Philippines may be more prone to civil disturbances because of its need to purchase rice on the international market to bolster its own stockpiles, said Lee, considered the founder of modern Singapore. Even so, ``the Philippines should be able to manage this,'' he said.
The price of rice on the Chicago Board of Trade has climbed 60 percent in the past year as farmers harvested less of the cereal than is being consumed, and countries including India, China and Vietnam curbed exports to safeguard domestic stockpiles and cool inflation.
`Little Risk'
``As long as governments can maintain food subsidies, I would see little risk of outright riots in Asia.'' said Frederic Neumann, an economist at HSBC Holdings Plc in Hong Kong. ``What's driving food prices right now is strong demand, rather than a disruption in supply, and demand-driven inflation tends to be more persistent,'' he said. Neumann expects rice prices to ``come off the extreme peaks'' in three to four months as supply increases.
Food prices will probably dominate a meeting of the Asian Development Bank today in Madrid, as Asian finance ministers seek ways to shield their economies from higher costs.
``I'm not quite sure we will know exactly how much of this present rise is due to real shortages or shortages induced by expectations of shortages, where people hold back supplies, where people buy more than they need to hoard,'' Lee said in the April 29 interview.
About 100 million people have been pushed deeper into poverty by the higher cost of food, the World Food Program said in a statement last month.
``It's right for the world bodies to take prompt action because the masses at the very bottom of the pile will have a hard time,'' Lee said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Liza Lin in Singapore at Llin15@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 2, 2008 21:17 EDT
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