Nov. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Chinese and Indian crude oil imports will almost quadruple by 2030, creating a supply ``crunch'' as soon as 2015, the International Energy Agency said.

China will replace the U.S. as the world's largest energy user early next decade and its oil demand will more than double to 16.5 million barrels a day by 2030, led by a sevenfold increase in Chinese car ownership, the IEA said. China and India together account for almost half of a projected 55 percent increase in world energy demand, the IEA said in its World Energy Outlook.

Oil investments of $5.3 trillion will be needed as new sources pace slowing output from old wells, the IEA said. If investments aren't made, this year's 61 percent surge in crude prices to more than $98 a barrel may be the start.

``From 2012, oil supply will be tight, this is not good news for anybody who wants to see an ease in prices,'' IEA Chief Economist Fatih Birol told reporters in London. ``The message to our governments is to slow down the demand increases and to producers to invest more if we want to avoid a supply crunch.''

China and India's combined imports will surge to 19.1 million barrels of oil a day by 2030 from 5.4 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, the report said in its so-called ``reference scenario.'' That's more than today's combined oil imports to Japan and the U.S., the largest energy user.

`High Growth'

The IEA maintained projections for oil production reaching as much as 116 million barrels of oil a day by 2030, up from about 85 million barrels a day now. Demand would reach 120 million barrels a day and crude prices as high as $159 a barrel in a ``high growth scenario,'' Birol said.

``We have to look at this because we have all been wrong so far'' about Chinese and Indian economic growth, said Birol. ``The most important question is what is the pace of growth in China and India in years to come.''

Birol, who began leading the team writing the World Energy Outlook in 2002, said high growth forecasts have more closely tracked actual results than the reference scenario for the past five years.

Some in the industry doubt world production can meet IEA projections. Reaching 100 million barrels a day may be ``optimistic,'' Total SA Chief Executive Officer Christophe de Margerie and the chairman of Libya's state oil company, Shokri Ghanem, said last week.

``We are saying what needed to be done, not what will be done,'' said Birol, who added the investment decisions will largely be up to OPEC nations. ``If they put their money there they can meet demand.''

Field Declines

An average field decline of 3.7 percent a year means 12.5 million barrels of new production -- more than the current output of Saudi Arabia -- needs to be added between 2012 and 2015 to counter the drop and meet new demand, the Paris-based adviser to 26 oil importing nations said in its 674-page report.

Even a slight increase in the rate of decline would ``eat up most of the world's current spare oil production capacity,'' the group said. ``Any shortfall in net capacity growth could result in a sharp escalation of prices.''

For every $4 invested in oil infrastructure, $3 will be needed to slow declining rates in existing fields, while $1 will go to new production, Birol said.

Russia and the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries, home to as much as 82 percent of oil reserves according to statistics from BP Plc, should account for a larger share of production though they may withhold investment because they realize higher prices will result, the IEA said.

Weak Alternatives

``The alternatives to OPEC are getting weaker and weaker,'' Nobuo Tanaka, the IEA's executive director, said at the conference in London. ``They may well go for the higher prices. One of the reasons we may see higher prices is investments won't be made.''

OPEC's share of world oil production will rise to 52 percent by 2030 from the current 42 percent, the IEA said. So-called non- conventional oil sources, such as extra heavy oils, tar sands and natural gas-to-liquids sources, will quadruple to 8.5 million barrels of oil a day from 1.8 million barrels of oil a day in 2006, the IEA said.

The IEA's report this year focuses on how China and India, the world's fastest growing energy users, are reshaping the industry. The agency was set up in 1974 by the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development to coordinate energy policy after an Arab oil embargo. It plans to add Slovakia and Poland as members. China and India could also one day join, Tanaka said.

U.S. Inflation

Record oil prices will probably push up U.S. inflation only marginally in coming months while having little impact on global economic growth, International Monetary Fund researchers Kevin Cheng and Valerie Mercer-Blackman wrote in a report Nov. 5.

Efforts to boost supply will spur demand for deep-sea oil rig companies, such as GlobalSantaFe Corp., the offshore oil and gas driller being acquired by Transocean Inc., said Don Hodges, who manages about $1.1 billion at Hodges Capital Management in Dallas.

``It all points to a shortage of rigs, and those companies that have the rigs are in an enviable position,'' Hodges, who has shares of both Transocean and GlobalSantaFe, said Nov. 5.

To contact the reporter responsible for this story: Tom Cahill in London at tcahill@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 7, 2007 09:43 EST