Bloomberg Anywhere Bloomberg Professional About Bloomberg


 
India's Rupee Falls a Ninth Day on Speculation Importers Sold

By Anil Varma and Anoop Agrawal

Nov. 28 (Bloomberg) -- India's rupee fell for a ninth day, its longest losing streak since June 2004, on speculation importers bought dollars for month-end payments.

Importers such as Indian Oil Corp., the nation's biggest refiner, are buying dollars to pay for imports as crude oil prices climbed to a record this month. The Rupee fell to the lowest in more than a month on concern higher oil crude prices will inflate India's import costs, widening trade and current account deficits.

``Oil prices have come off record highs but may remain at elevated levels on expectations of a strong winter in the U.S., thus posing a significant risk for the rupee,'' Siddhartha Bhotika, Mumbai-based currency economist at ICICI Bank Ltd., said in a research note.

The rupee fell to 39.80 against the dollar as of the 5 p.m. local time close in Mumbai from 39.79 yesterday, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

Asia's third-largest economy imports three-quarters of its energy needs. Crude oil, which touched a record $99.29 a barrel on Nov. 21, has gained 55 percent this year.

Accelerated gains in crude oil may affect India's currency and current account deficit, the Reserve Bank of India said in its annual banking report yesterday.

The nation's current account showed a shortfall of $4.69 billion in the three months through June, compared with a surplus of $2.56 billion in the previous quarter, according to central bank data. The trade shortfall averaged $6.2 billion a month in the fiscal year that began in April, compared with $4.3 billion a year earlier, according to government data.

Opportunity

The median estimate in a Bloomberg News survey of 18 economists and currency strategists is for the rupee to strengthen to 39 by the end of 2007. The Indian currency's 11.5 percent gain this year is the second-best performance among Asian currencies after the Philippine peso.

The currency gained earlier today on speculation exporters took advantage of its decline to the lowest since Oct. 22 to convert earnings. The rupee is headed for its first monthly loss since August.

``It's an opportunity for exporters given the underlying view that the rupee will rise in the longer term,'' said Amit Garg, a trader at state-owned Allahabad Bank Ltd. ``The rupee may remain strong in the next few days.''

Tata Consultancy Services Ltd., India's biggest software exporter, expects the rupee to advance to 39.50 rupees.

``The fundamentals are still for appreciation'' of the rupee, Tata Consultancy's Chief Financial Officer S. Mahalingam said in an interview with CNBC-TV18 yesterday.

Stock Gains

The rupee also advanced on optimism overseas funds may reduce sales of local equities following gains in the stock market this week. The Bombay Stock Exchange's benchmark Sensitive Index has gained 2 percent so far this week, after falling 4.3 percent last week.

Funds based abroad bought local shares for the first time in seven days on Nov. 26, data from the Securities and Exchange Board of India show. Such funds have sold shares worth an average $64 million a day this month.

``The rupee has gained as dollar supplies have improved,'' said Paresh Nayar, chief foreign exchange dealer at the Development Credit Bank Ltd. in Mumbai. ``There are some inward remittances coming through a few foreign banks.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Anil Varma in Mumbai at avarma3@bloomberg.net; Anoop Agrawal in Mumbai at 9038 or Aagrawal8@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 28, 2007 07:43 EST

Sponsored links