Sept. 4 (Bloomberg) -- Coffee output in India, Asia's third-biggest exporter of the commodity, may fall because of damage from excessive rainfall ahead of the harvest, likely worsening a global shortage forecast next year.

Production in the year starting Oct. 1 may be at least 15 percent below the 291,000 metric tons forecast by the state-run Coffee Board in July, said N. Bose Mandanna, a grower and former vice chairman of the board.

Reduced output in India may add to the global shortage of the robusta bean, supporting prices that have risen 14 percent in the past year. The International Coffee Organization expects a coffee deficit of 8 million bags next season. A bag weighs 132 pounds, or 60 kilograms.

``I expect robusta output to be at least 20 percent lower as large areas were damaged because of the rains,'' Mandanna said in a telephone interview from Madikeri in southern India. Heavy rain has caused fruits and leaves to drop, he said.

Robusta for November delivery rose $8, or 0.5 percent, to $1,783 a ton at 2 p.m. on Euronext.liffe in London.

Coffee-growing regions in the southern India including Chikmagalure, Hassan and Kodagu got as much as 40 inches of rainfall in July and August, a level deemed excessive, Anil Kumar Bhandari, a member of the Board and a coffee grower in Karnataka, said.

`Gloom and Doom'

The Coffee Board estimated production of robusta beans, the type used to make instant coffee, at 190,250 tons and output of the milder-tasting arabica to reach 100,750 tons.

``There's gloom and doom in some regions,'' Bhandari said. ``Output is certainly going to be less than estimated. We will have a clear picture by early October.''

Lower production may reduce exports of the commodity for a second year. Overseas shipments fell 6 percent in the October- to-August period as growers withheld beans in anticipation of a recovery in prices in the coming months.

Exporters including units of Switzerland-based Nestle SA shipped 210,936 tons between Oct. 1 and Aug. 31, compared with 224,331 tons a year ago, according to the Board said. Shipments fetched an average 84,217 rupees ($2,060) a ton, up 9 percent from a year earlier.

``Most growers expect global coffee prices to rise during the winter period,'' Bhandari said.

Italy and Russia were the biggest buyers of Indian coffee in the January-August period, accounting for 26 percent and 10 percent respectively. Olam International Ltd., Coca-Cola Far East Ltd. and Tata Coffee Ltd. were the biggest buyers of the Indian coffee.

To contact the reporter on this story: Thomas Kutty Abraham in Mumbai at tabraham4@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 4, 2007 09:07 EDT