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Dollar Trades at Almost 15-Month Low as G-20 Pledge Buoys Risk

By Ye Xie and Oliver Biggadike

Nov. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The dollar traded at almost a 15- month low versus the currencies of major U.S. trading partners after the Group of 20 nations agreed to maintain stimulus measures that make it inexpensive to borrow the U.S. currency.

The greenback and yen fell yesterday against most of their major counterparts tracked by Bloomberg as U.S. equities advanced on the G-20 statement. Canada’s dollar rose the most against the greenback since May as commodities including crude oil and gold rallied.

“The dollar retains its status as the cheap funding currency of the world,” said Paresh Upadhyaya, who helps manage $21 billion in currency assets as a senior vice president at Putnam Investments LLC in Boston. “We’ve seen the dollar sell off as risk returns.”

The Dollar Index, which IntercontinentalExchange Inc. uses to track the greenback against the currencies of six major U.S. trading partners including the euro, yen and pound, traded at 75.054 at 7:23 a.m. in Tokyo, after touching 74.930, the lowest level since August 2008. The index has lost 7.7 percent in 2009.

The Canadian dollar appreciated as much as 2 percent to C$1.0543, the strongest level since Oct. 26. It was the biggest advance since May 29.

Gold futures for December delivery surged as much as 1.5 percent to a record $1.111.70 an ounce, while crude oil rose as much as 3.6 percent to $80.19 a barrel. Raw materials account for more than half of Canada’s export revenue.

Stronger Rand

South Africa’s rand gained 1.4 percent to 7.4312 per dollar yesterday and Norway’s krone advanced 2 percent to 16.10 yen on speculation stock and commodity gains will encourage investors to increase carry trades, in which they sell the currency of a nation with low borrowing costs and buy assets where returns are higher.

Benchmark interest rates of 0.1 percent in Japan and as low as zero in the U.S. make the yen and dollar favored targets for investors seeking to fund carry trades.

The U.S. currency also declined as the International Monetary Fund said in a report published on Nov. 7 that the greenback may still be overvalued as traders use the currency to fund carry trades. The dollar “has moved closer to medium-run equilibrium” yet is still “on the strong side,” the IMF said.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Index advanced 2.2 percent yesterday as G-20 finance officials agreed over the weekend in Scotland to keep interest rates low and maintain record budget deficits until recoveries take hold.

U.S. Labor Market

America’s unemployment rate jumped in October to 10.2 percent, the highest level since 1983, the Labor Department reported on Nov. 6. Payrolls fell by 190,000, more than the median forecast of 84 economists in a Bloomberg survey.

The Federal Reserve repeated at the end of a two-day policy meeting on Nov. 4 its intent to keep interest rates “exceptionally low” for “an extended period.”

The payrolls report “is disconcerting,” said Brian Kim, a currency strategist in Stamford, Connecticut, at UBS AG, the world’s second-largest currency trader. “It raises questions whether the Fed will wait even longer.”

The dollar depreciated as much as 1.2 percent versus the euro yesterday, the biggest decline since Nov. 4, before trading at $1.4999, compared with $1.4847 at the end of last week. It touched $1.5020, the weakest level since Oct. 26. The euro advanced 1.1 percent to 134.91 yen, from 133.45. The dollar was little changed at 89.93 yen, compared with 89.88.

The U.S. currency’s decline to $1.55 is “around the corner,” said Stephen Koukoulas, head of global foreign exchange and fixed income in London at Toronto-Dominion Bank, in a Bloomberg Television interview. “The dollar is falling for good reason.”

Pound’s Advance

Sterling gained as much as 1.4 percent to $1.6843, the highest level since Aug. 6, as the U.K.’s stocks rose. The pound pared its advance as Kraft Foods Inc. stuck to its initial bid in an unsolicited offer to buy Cadbury Plc for 9.8 billion pounds ($16 billion).

The euro strengthened versus the dollar as the Federal Statistics Office in Wiesbaden said yesterday that exports from Germany, the euro region’s largest economy, rose 3.8 percent in September. The median forecast of 13 economists in a Bloomberg survey was for a 2.5 percent increase.

To contact the reporters on this story: Ye Xie in New York at yxie6@bloomberg.net; Oliver Biggadike in New York at obiggadike@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: November 9, 2009 17:26 EST

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