Nov. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong's retail sales probably increased more than 10 percent for a fifth straight month as a buoyant stock market and rising incomes stoked consumer spending.

Retail sales by value climbed 15.5 percent in September from a year earlier, after gaining 15 percent in August, according to the median estimate of 10 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The report is due at 4:15 p.m. today.

The Hong Kong Monetary Authority lowered its base rate for overnight lending by a quarter point to 6 percent today, following a cut by the U.S. Federal Reserve yesterday. Cheaper borrowing costs have pushed up share prices, encouraging Hong Kong residents to spend more on food, clothes and electronics.

``Consumer sentiment has been boosted by gains in the stock market,'' said Chris Leung, senior economist at DBS Bank Ltd. in Hong Kong. ``Hong Kong retail sales will continue to accelerate until Christmas.''

The Hang Seng Index of stocks surged above 31,000 for the first time last month and has risen almost 58 percent this year.

Share prices may increase further after the U.S. Federal Reserve cut its benchmark interest rate overnight for a second time this year, by a quarter point to 4.5 percent, to sustain growth in the world's biggest economy.

Lending-Rate Cuts

Hong Kong's city's de facto central bank, which has tied its currency to the U.S. dollar since 1983, forms its base rate by adding 1.5 percentage points to the Fed's overnight lending rate.

Hong Kong consumers are also benefiting from jobs growth and increasing incomes. The city's average wage climbed 2.6 percent in June from a year earlier, the largest gain since March 1998. The unemployment rate dropped to a nine-year low of 4.1 percent at the end of September.

Economic growth accelerated to 6.9 percent in the second quarter from a year earlier, driven by consumer spending, business investment and exports.

By volume, retail sales probably climbed 13 percent in September from a year earlier after rising 12.5 percent in August, the survey showed.

The following table shows economists' estimates for percentage changes in retail sales from a year earlier:

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                             Value   Volume
Firm                           YoY      YoY
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Median                       15.5%    13.0%
Average                      15.3%    12.7%
High                         16.5%    14.0%
Low                          13.0%    10.8%
Number of Estimates             10       11
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Action Economics             15.0%    12.5%
Bank of China (Hong Kong)    14.6%    12.6%
Bank of East Asia            16.0%    13.0%
Capital Economics            14.4%    11.5%
CIMB-GK Research             15.5%    13.1%
DBS Group                    16.1%    13.7%
Forecast Ltd.                15.5%    12.0%
Hang Seng Bank               13.0%    10.8%
ING Groep NV                 16.5%    14.0%
JPMorgan Chase                  --    13.0%
Lehman Brothers              16.0%       --
UBS                             --    14.0%
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To contact the reporter on this story: Wendy Leung in Hong Kong at wleung12@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 31, 2007 21:19 EDT