Feb. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Kanye West is probably already polishing his Grammy speeches. He may be upstaged by Amy Winehouse, and she won't even be at music's biggest award show.

Both look poised for success at the Feb. 10 Los Angeles show after difficult years. U.S. rapper West's mother, who was also his manager, died suddenly. U.K. singer Winehouse, who was initially refused a visa to enter the U.S. and then granted one, has stacked up problems: drink, drugs, shambolic concerts and a jail spell for her husband.

Kanye may well swagger up to the stage in his coolest suit to snap up the best-album prize on his third attempt. He had to be content with best-rap album for his previous CDs. ``Graduation'' (Roc-A-Fella) would be a worthy winner this year. West is up for eight Grammys, so he may need to buy a bigger mantelpiece or mansion for such an array of bling.

Winehouse is nominated for six awards. Despite being granted a visa, she won't be attending the awards, the AP reported. Fans will miss the spectacle of seeing her totter in her trademark high heels wondering if she will get though a live performance while still undergoing medical treatment that pushes her defiant hit song ``Rehab'' (Universal) beyond ironic.

Members of the U.S. Recording Academy may, of course, punish Winehouse for her high-profile drug abuse. Some critics have no sympathy for her, some doubt her talent while others think she's the best British female vocalist since Dusty Springfield. Having heard Winehouse perform, I wouldn't go that far, though she still has great promise.

Digital Grammys?

Amy and Kanye would be wise to remember that the Grammys have lost some of their glitter. For decades, the prizes were trumpeted as music's equivalent of the Oscars. A Grammy meant respect. A Grammy meant sales. Now, even the old-fashioned phonograph shape of the statuettes can be seen as symbolizing an award that has passed its sell-by date in the digital age.

The Grammys, intended to award ``artistic excellence,'' are often criticized for being out of touch. Some acts have been overlooked, while others have been showered in prizes. Pick your example: The Beatles won seven Grammys, Sting and Pat Metheny have garnered more than twice that number. Winehouse's retro sound may well appeal to Grammy judges, though it certainly isn't cutting edge.

The awards also get devalued when they are spread over more than 100 categories, many of them overlapping. Fans of ``The Simpsons'' know all the running jokes: Elton John gives Homer a Grammy in gratitude for a compliment. Homer throws it away.

No Monkeys

In an ideal world, the list would be pruned, the award ceremony cut in half and the nominations would be wider. Somewhere in the list, you can find Wilco and Mika, which bodes well for alt-rock, though the Arctic Monkeys and Neil Young miss the cut.

Arcade Fire may triumph in the ``best alternative music album'' category, though the band's outstanding ``Neon Bible'' (Merge) has strong competition from Lily Allen, Bjork, the Shins and the White Stripes.

If there is any justice, the gravelly voiced Tom Waits will have the last laugh by winning ``best contemporary folk/ Americana album'' with his sprawling box set ``Orphans'' (Anti).

Of course, Grammy judges did pick A Taste of Honey over Elvis Costello for best newcomer and passed over groundbreaking CDs by Eminem and Nirvana.

Let's hope for more common sense this time. The Grammys need it. They also need more genuine talents, such as West and Winehouse, to retain credibility among music lovers.

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(Mark Beech writes for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer on this story: Mark Beech in London at mbeech@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: February 8, 2008 17:42 EST