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‘Watchmen’ May Open With $70 Million, Lift Box Office (Update1)

By Michael White

March 6 (Bloomberg) -- “Watchmen,” Hollywood’s dark take on the comic-book superhero genre, may reach $70 million in ticket sales in its debut, lifting box-office revenue for a fifth consecutive weekend.

The film generated about $4.55 million in sales from midnight shows, Dan Fellman, Warner Bros.’ president for domestic theatrical distribution, said today in an interview. The sales prompted Steve Mason, film analyst at Big Hollywood.com, to lift his forecast to about $70 million from $63 million, he said today in an e-mail.

The movie from Time Warner Inc., based on the 1986 graphic novel, is this week’s only new wide release and will open in 3,611 U.S. and Canadian theaters, the most for any R-rated film, Fellman said. The studio’s “300,” also based on a graphic novel, holds the record for the biggest March opening with $70.9 million in 2007, according to researcher Box Office Mojo LLC. Zack Snyder directed both films.

“Because it’s based on an acclaimed graphic novel, it will bring in a lot of the older audience,” Chuck Walton, editor at online ticket vendor Fandango, said in an interview. “The R rating is an attraction because they know it will be faithful to the book.”

As of yesterday, “Watchmen” accounted for 91 percent of Fandango’s current sales.

“Watchmen” was named by Time magazine as one of the best novels of all time. The story, set during a time of tense Cold War relations between the U.S. and the Soviet Union, follows superheroes as they uncover a deadly conspiracy.

‘300’ Repeat?

An R rating means no one under the age of 17 can be admitted unless accompanied by an adult.

The “Watchmen” release includes 124 Imax Corp. theaters in the U.S., compared with 62 when “300” opened in 2007, Imax Chairman Greg Foster said in an interview.

All 124 Imax screens sold out at midnight last night, and about 20 3 a.m. showings were added, according to Media By Numbers LLC.

“300,” about the ancient battle between Spartans and Persians helped establish Imax as an outlet for the darker comic- based movies, Foster said. The film, also rated R, went on to take in $456 million worldwide, according to Box Office Mojo.

Critics’ reviews of “Watchmen” tracked by the Rotten Tomatoes Web site have been 45 percent positive. Viewers not familiar with the book may have trouble following the movie’s complex narrative, according to the site.

“We have a history with Zack Snyder with ‘300,’” Foster said. “It made consumers start asking exhibitors and suggesting to anyone who would listen that Imax was the place to see cool movies.”

Tyler Perry

Gitesh Pandya, editor of Box Office Guru LLC, estimates weekend sales for “Watchmen” of about $64 million.

Meeting Pandya and Mason’s estimates would give “Watchmen” this year’s biggest open so far, ahead of “Tyler Perry’s Madea Goes to Jail.” The comedy from Lions Gate Entertainment Corp. has been No. 1 for two weeks, generating $67 million including $41 million its first weekend, according to Box Office Mojo.

As of March 1, movie attendance was up about 16 percent this year, according to Los Angeles-based Media By Numbers. Ticket sales climbed 17 percent to $1.79 billion.

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael White in Los Angeles at mwhite@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: March 6, 2009 15:07 EST