Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Former Pittsburgh Steeler Alvin Cowans, temporarily wheelchair-bound with a ruptured Achilles tendon, flew from Orlando, Florida, on Nov. 9 with his wife to see ``The Color Purple'' on Broadway the following night.

They won't be back anytime soon.

``We were definitely in shock,'' Cowans, 53, said about learning in the lobby of New York's Doubletree Metropolitan Hotel that the Saturday evening ``Color Purple'' performance was canceled.

``My wife said we'll never get a chance to see the show, unless it comes down to Florida,'' said Cowans, who today is president of McCoy Federal Credit Union.

Precisely measuring the impact of the 12-day-old strike by Local One stagehands of the International Alliance of Theatrical Stage Employees is impossible. But economists for the city and the League of American Theatres and Producers agree that losses are substantial and will worsen over time.

Pre-theater customers at La Masseria, a popular 105-seat Italian restaurant, are down about 70 percent. Overall sales are off 25 percent, owner Peppe Iuele said.

``We're doing OK, considering that some restaurants are not doing anything at all,'' Iuele said of his West 48th Street eatery. ``But 25 percent is a lot of money. It's coming out of my pocket. It's the busiest time of the year.''

Frank Braconi, chief economist for New York City Comptroller William C. Thompson Jr., estimates that New York loses about $2 million in economic activity for each day of the strike.

``It will probably mount if people start making travel decisions based on the fact that they can't see a Broadway play,'' he said.

Conservative Estimate

Braconi said his estimate is conservative, which is apparent after perusing box-office revenue. Thanksgiving week is traditionally Broadway's second-busiest week of the year. A year ago, the 33 shows playing -- including a little-known musical in previews called ``Spring Awakening'' -- had total ticket sales of $23.3 million, according to data from the League of American Theatres and Producers. That alone averages to more than $3 million a day.

But Braconi assumes that a theatergoer shut out of a dark show will spend the money that he or she is refunded.

``The average theater ticket is about $76,'' Braconi said. ``We assume that that $76 is spent elsewhere in the city, on other entertainment or shopping or whatever.''

But a couple who can't use their premium tickets to ``Wicked'' -- at $300 each -- will save a bundle if they wander two blocks from the Gershwin Theatre to New World Stages and catch the Off-Broadway musical ``Altar Boyz.'' Top seats there, which include brief mingling with the cast, go for $126.

`Our Little Show'

Robyn Goodman, an ``Altar Boyz'' producer, said grosses doubled last week though declined to provide figures.

``I didn't realize how great it would be for our little show,'' said Goodman, who is also a producer of the shuttered ``Avenue Q'' on Broadway.

``It's a sad strike, but it's been very good for Off- Broadway.''

For his projection, Braconi makes the assumption that New York remains a tourist draw with or without theater. He assumes that a negligible number of non-U.S. visitors will cancel trips as a result of the strike. And that just 5 percent of visitors from within the U.S. who hold Broadway tickets to one of the 27 dark shows will cancel their trip.

He does assume that all suburban theatergoers -- from New Jersey, Connecticut, Long Island -- will cancel their daytrips to New York.

Charlotte St. Martin, executive director of the producers' league, issued a statement on Nov. 10 that the strike ``will have an economic impact of $17 million per day in direct and indirect costs.''

True Impact

That figure, widely reported, is overstated, according to the league's own research director, Karen Hauser. The true economic impact is closer to $8 million, she said.

Broadway's contribution to New York is $5.3 billion, she explained, citing a league study. Divide that by 313 days -- most shows are dark one day a week -- and you get about $17 million for Broadway's economic contribution.

``If the strike went on long enough and Broadway moved to New Jersey,'' then $17 million per day would apply.

Eight Broadway shows remain running and ``Wicked'' hasn't yet moved to Newark. Hauser said her $8 million estimate of losses is based on weekly production expenses for canceled performances and income that hotels, taxis and restaurants lose after theater-loving tourists abort or shorten trips.

Performances for the 27 shuttered Broadway shows are off through Nov. 25. The league and Local One have had discussions about meeting on that Sunday. As of yesterday afternoon, no meeting was scheduled, league spokesman Alan Cohen said.

League's Letter

Late yesterday, the producers' league released a letter to employees saying that during weekend talks it ``offered significant concessions, and there was cause for optimism in the room, which makes the current impasse all the more frustrating.''

In addition to dropping some requests for more flexibility in hiring stagehands, the producers offered salary increases of 20 percent over five years. Hope for a resolution ``was dashed when local leadership countered with an offer that, instead of building on the positive momentum, moved backward,'' the letter said.

Bruce Cohen, a Local One spokesman, declined to comment.

Walt Disney Co.'s ``The Little Mermaid'' postponed its Dec. 6 opening indefinitely. The Steppenwolf Theatre Co. production of ``August: Osage County'' said it will extend the play's run by three weeks, through March 9. It was to open on Nov. 20.

Cowans, after his unsuccessful $2,000 visit to see ``Color Purple,'' said New York has a ``small image problem.''

``I don't think we'll make plans to come just to see another show,'' he said, citing the risk of a theater strike. ``It could happen again.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Philip Boroff in New York at pboroff@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: November 21, 2007 00:04 EST