Feb. 21 (Bloomberg) -- This weekend's Oscars may turn into Bloody Sunday. ``There Will Be Blood'' and ``No Country for Old Men,'' brashly violent films each nominated for eight Academy Awards, are likely to win most of the major honors.

``No Country for Old Men,'' the Coen brothers' thriller about a hunter who finds a $2 million stash of drug money, is favored for best picture, best director and best supporting actor (Javier Bardem). ``There Will Be Blood,'' Paul Thomas Anderson's epic about a ruthless oil baron, is a strong contender for best picture and best director, and Daniel Day- Lewis is a virtual lock for best actor.

Though I've correctly picked 10 of 12 winners over the past two years, keep in mind that I also took New England in the Super Bowl and predicted Britney Spears would be named Mother of the Year.

Best Picture

Nominees: ``No Country for Old Men,'' ``There Will Be Blood,'' ``Michael Clayton,'' ``Juno,'' ``Atonement.''

Skinny: ``No Country for Old Men'' won most of the pre- Oscar awards, and all the other nominees have serious drawbacks. ``There Will Be Blood'' is long and elusive, ``Michael Clayton'' is too mainstream, ``Juno'' is politically incorrect (a comedy about teen pregnancy) and ``Atonement'' is basically a big- budget version of ``Masterpiece Theatre.''

Should Win: ``There Will Be Blood.''

Will Win: ``No Country for Old Men.''

Best Actor

Nominees: Day-Lewis (``There Will Be Blood''), George Clooney (``Michael Clayton''), Johnny Depp (``Sweeney Todd''), Tommy Lee Jones (``In the Valley of Elah''), Viggo Mortensen (``Eastern Promises'').

Skinny: Day-Lewis's astonishing performance as an early 20th-century oil tycoon is head and shoulders above the rest. Clooney is extremely popular with his colleagues, and Jones, who also was terrific in ``No Country for Old Men,'' could benefit from having a great overall year. But they're all fighting for second place.

Should Win: Day-Lewis.

Will Win: Day-Lewis.

Best Actress

Nominees: Julie Christie (``Away From Her''), Marion Cotillard (``La Vie en Rose''), Cate Blanchett (``Elizabeth: The Golden Age''), Laura Linney (``The Savages''), Ellen Page (``Juno'').

Skinny: A very strong, competitive category that appears to be a two-actress race between Christie and Cotillard. Christie, who won her only Oscar for ``Darling'' (1965), is the sentimental favorite for her moving portrayal of an Alzheimer's victim, but Cotillard also gives a bravura performance as Edith Piaf. Page is too young (she turns 21 three days before the ceremony), Linney's movie bombed at the box office and Blanchett's film was lousy.

Should Win: Christie.

Will Win: Christie.

Best Supporting Actor

Nominees: Bardem (``No Country for Old Men''), Casey Affleck (``The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford''), Hal Holbrook (``Into the Wild''), Philip Seymour Hoffman (``Charlie Wilson's War''), Tom Wilkinson (``Michael Clayton'').

Skinny: Bardem is the odds-on choice for his frightening performance as a psychotic killer, though I thought Affleck and Wilkinson were just as good in more complex roles -- Affleck as the timid man who killed Jesse James and Wilkinson as a principled lawyer who suffers a nervous breakdown.

Should Win: Wilkinson.

Will Win: Bardem.

Best Supporting Actress

Nominees: Blanchett (``I'm Not There''), Amy Ryan (``Gone Baby Gone''), Ruby Dee (``American Gangster''), Tilda Swinton (``Michael Clayton''), Saoirse Ronan (``Atonement'').

Skinny: The front-runners are Blanchett, for her uncanny impersonation of Bob Dylan, and Ryan, for her role as the drug- addicted mother of a missing girl. They're both Oscar-worthy, though Blanchett's Dylan might strike some as too gimmicky.

Should Win: Ryan.

Will Win: Blanchett.

Best Director

Nominees: Joel and Ethan Coen (``No Country for Old Men''), Anderson (``There Will Be Blood''), Julian Schnabel (``The Diving Bell and the Butterfly''), Tony Gilroy (``Michael Clayton''), Jason Reitman (``Juno'').

Skinny: Best picture and best director don't always go hand in hand, as proven in 2006 when ``Crash'' was honored as the top film and Ang Lee won the directing award for ``Brokeback Mountain.'' I doubt it will happen again this year, but it should. While ``The Diving Bell and the Butterfly'' was overlooked for best picture, Schnabel was rightly recognized for his brilliant direction of a film about a paralyzed magazine editor who learns to communicate by blinking one eye.

Should Win: Schnabel.

Will Win: Coen brothers.

The Academy Awards will be broadcast by Walt Disney Co.'s ABC on Feb. 24, starting at 8 p.m. New York time.

(Rick Warner is the movie critic for Bloomberg News. The opinions expressed are his own.)

To contact the writer of this story: Rick Warner in New York at rwarner1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: February 21, 2008 00:08 EST