April 3 (Bloomberg) -- Zimbabwe President Robert Mugabe's advisers and family are split over whether he should quit or compete in a runoff election to continue his 28-year reign, two top members of his party said.

Five days after a strong opposition showing in the March 29 election, Mugabe is talking with security officials, family members and personal advisers about how to respond, said two politburo officials from the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front. They declined to be identified.

Military chief Constantine Chiwenga and Commissioner General of Police Augustine Chihuri are urging Mugabe to fight a runoff because they are concerned that an opposition-run government may charge security officials with human rights abuses and corruption, the politburo members said.

Central Intelligence Organization Director Happyton Bonyongwe, family members and personal aides are urging Mugabe to resign, the party officials said. Workers at the CIO declined to put Bloomberg calls through to Bonyongwe. No one answered the phone at police headquarters and a person who answered the phone at army headquarters wouldn't transfer the call to Chiwenga.

``There has been factional fighting within Zanu-PF for a long time and I see no reason why that would have stopped,'' Brian Raftopoulos, a political analyst at the Cape Town-based Institute for Justice and Reconciliation, said in an interview. ``In fact, it has probably intensified now.''

Weaker President

Official results from the presidential election will be released today and may show that neither Mugabe, 84, nor opposition leader Morgan Tsvangirai, 56, won a majority in the presidential race, said George Charamba, Mugabe's spokesman. That outcome would require a runoff within three weeks.

``I am very, very worried,'' Raftopoulos, a Zimbabwean, said. ``Mugabe could easily roll out the repression in a runoff for the presidency.''

The ruling Zanu-PF is ready to ``unleash its full power'' behind Mugabe in a presidential runoff, Deputy Information Minister Bright Matonga said today in a phone interview from the capital, Harare. ``We are ready for victory,'' he added.

If Mugabe manages to retain the presidency, he will be a weaker but by no means impotent leader. His era of absolute control of Zimbabwe ended after opposition politicians won 111 of the 210 seats in parliament's House of Assembly in the March 29 election, according to official results released yesterday.

The ``loss of parliamentary control is probably the most significant event since independence in 1980,'' said Alec Kaseke, a former political science lecturer at the University of Zimbabwe in Harare. Mugabe ``won't be able to bulldoze the people in one direction or the other.''

Senate Results

Before losing control of the Assembly, Mugabe had controlled all levels of Zimbabwe's government since he helped lead a guerrilla army that overthrew white-minority rulers in 1980. Mugabe has used nearly three decades of absolute control to push through constitutional amendments to strengthen the presidency.

The Senate, created last year as a separate parliamentary chamber, can block legislative proposals, so it would be another check on the Assembly's ambitions if Mugabe partisans control it. Official election results from Senate races also haven't been released yet.

``There is no question that Mugabe is on the back foot, the momentum is with Tsvangirai,'' Marian Tupy, an analyst at the Washington-based Cato Institute, said in an interview. ``They may well declare that there has to be a runoff.''

`The Next President'

Support for the president withered as his policies spawned a decade-long recession and the world's highest inflation rate, 100,580 percent. He seized white-owned commercial farms and turned them over to black small-scale farmers who mainly grew food for their own families. That policy won him support from poor Zimbabweans deprived of land under colonial rule, while slashing exports and causing shortages of fuel and food.

Opposition leader Tsvangirai's Movement for Democratic Change yesterday released its own tally of presidential votes -- based on results posted outside of individual polling places -- and said he beat Mugabe.

Tendai Biti, the MDC's secretary-general, said Tsvangirai won 50.3 percent of the votes, enough to avoid a runoff. In remarks broadcast live from Harare by the British Broadcasting Corp., Biti said Mugabe obtained 43.8 percent.

``Morgan Richard Tsvangirai is the next president of this country, without a runoff,'' Biti said. ``The opposition has won the elections.'' The MDC would participate in a runoff only ``under protest,'' he added. ``It is highly unlikely that people's decisions will be reversed in a runoff.''

Markets Reaction

Charamba, the Mugabe spokesman, dismissed the MDC's victory claim, accusing the party of ``trying to rig the elections.''

An assessment of the vote by the independent Zimbabwe Electoral Support Network indicated that Tsvangirai may not be able to avoid a runoff. A sample of 435 polling stations, covering 5 percent of the population, showed Tsvangirai with 49 percent of the vote, Mugabe with 41 percent and former Finance Minister Simba Makoni, who ran as an independent, with 8 percent, the group said.

The South African rand has gained 3.8 percent since polling day on speculation that Mugabe's reign may be over, bringing stability to the region. The rand traded at 7.8340 to the dollar as of 16:13 p.m. Johannesburg time compared with 8.1432 on March 28, the day before the elections.

Leadership Change Positive

``A change of leadership in Zimbabwe is positive for the entire region,'' said Russell Lamberti, an economist at Econometrix Treasury Management, which advises clients on bond and foreign-exchange transactions in Johannesburg. ``It's a significant political development right on our doorstep and it's definitely helping the rand.''

Shares of mining companies with assets in Zimbabwe also rose. Zimplats Holdings Ltd., the company controlled by Impala Platinum Holdings Ltd. that runs Zimbabwe's platinum mines, jumped 11 percent to A$15.90 in Sydney trading.

In Harare, shares on Zimbabwe's stock exchange have been volatile. Still, the benchmark Industrials Index has risen 32 percent to 14.12 billion points, while the mining index has almost doubled to 12.29 billion points since March 28.

``Everyone is waiting on the final results of the election,'' Emmanuel Munyukwi, the chief executive officer of the Zimbabwe Stock Exchange, said in an interview from Harare. ``Right now everything is anyone's guess.''

Provoking Unrest

Government officials urged the MDC to await official results, warning that its claims of victory may provoke unrest and prompt the government to take action.

In parliamentary races, election officials announced on state television that the MDC secured 99 of the 210 seats in the House of Assembly. Mugabe's ZANU-PF won 96. An MDC splinter group led by Arthur Mutambara won 11 seats. An independent candidate got one. Three seats remain to be decided in later by- elections.

To contact the reporters on this story: Brian Latham via the Johannesburg bureau at pmrichardson@bloomberg.net; Antony Sguazzin in Johannesburg at asguazzin@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: April 3, 2008 10:22 EDT