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Sales of U.S. Existing Homes Fell to 10-Year Low (Update2)

By Bob Willis

July 24 (Bloomberg) -- Sales of previously owned U.S. homes fell in June to the lowest level in a decade, signaling tumbling real-estate prices and consumer confidence are hurting demand.

Resales dropped 2.6 percent to a lower than forecast 4.86 million annual rate from a 4.99 million pace the prior month, the National Association of Realtors said today in Washington. The median home price dropped 6.1 percent from June last year.

The biggest housing recession in a generation, now being exacerbated by a tightening in credit and rising borrowing costs as financial losses spread, threatens to stall economic growth. Mounting foreclosures are depressing home prices even more, prompting some buyers to hold out for bigger bargains.

``Until we see a decline in the overhang of unsold homes, prices will continue to weaken,'' said Doug Porter, deputy chief economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. ``Even if sales stabilize, we would still be left with a large overhang.''

Economists forecast home resales would fall to a 4.94 million pace, according to the median of 77 projections in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from a 4.79 million pace to 5.1 million rate. Last month's pace was the lowest since the first quarter of 1998.

Another report earlier today from the Labor Department showed first-time claims for unemployment benefits rose last week to the highest in almost four months, a sign the slowing economy is weakening the labor market. Applications increased by 34,000 to 406,000 in the week ended July 19.

Compared with a year earlier, existing home sales were down 16 percent in June. Purchases are down by about a third from a record of 7.25 million reached in September 2005.

Single-Family

Sales of existing single-family homes declined 3.2 percent to an annual rate of 4.27 million pace. Purchases of condos and coops increased 1.7 percent to a 590,000 pace.

The median sales price fell to $215,100 from $229,000 in June 2007. The median cost of a single-family home decreased 6.7 percent to $213,800, while that of condominiums and co-ops fell 2.2 percent to $224,200.

Purchases decreased in three of four regions, led by a 6.6 percent decline in the Northeast. Sales rose 1 percent in the West, which also showed a 17 percent drop in the median price, the biggest of any region.

The number of previously owned unsold homes on the market at the end of June rose to 4.49 million from 4.482 million in May. The total represented 11.1 months' supply at the current sales pace. The agents' group has said that a five-to-six month's supply reflects a balanced market.

Foreclosures

The glut of homes may be even greater because not all foreclosed properties are counted by the Realtors group. The group only includes foreclosures that have been listed on the multiple listings service.

About a third of last month's sales were foreclosed properties, said Lawrence Yun, chief economist of the agents' group, in a press conference.

``There are signs of pent up demand,'' Yun said during the press conference. ``People are very hesitant to enter the market because of price declines.'' A stabilization in prices would bring first-time buyers into the market, allowing current owners to move up in the market, he said.

Existing home sales account for about 85 percent of the U.S. housing market, while new home sales make up the rest. Monthly figures for resales are compiled from contract closings and may reflect sales agreed upon weeks or months earlier.

Rate Resets

More Americans are walking away from their homes as property values slump and borrowing costs on adjustable-rate mortgages reset higher. Bank seizures increased a record 171 percent in June from a year ago and foreclosure filings rose 53 percent, RealtyTrac Inc., a seller of default data, reported this month.

Home prices nationwide have fallen 18 percent on average from their July 2006 peak, according to the S&P/Case-Shiller index of 20 metropolitan areas. The drop in values may be giving those buyers still able to get financing reason to hesitate.

Consumer sentiment dropped in June to the lowest level in 28 years, according to the Reuters/University of Michigan survey, and the economy lost jobs for a sixth straight month, adding to reasons home buyers are sidelined.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke last week abandoned his June assessment that the threat of an economic downturn had diminished, telling lawmakers in semiannual testimony in Washington that there were ``significant downside risks'' to the economic outlook.

Bernanke's View

``In the housing sector, activity continues to weaken,'' he said. ``The declines in home prices have contributed to the rising tide of foreclosures; by adding to the stock of vacant homes for sale, these foreclosures have, in turn, intensified the downward pressure on prices.''

Concern over the ability of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, the largest U.S. purchasers of mortgages, to survive the meltdown in subprime lending has heightened the credit crisis and may further curtail access to loans.

There is ``no sign of a recovery in housing'' this year, Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest maker of earthmoving equipment, said in a statement this week. The company said second-quarter profit climbed 34 percent, exceeding analysts' estimates, on demand for backhoes and mining tools in China and the Middle East.

Caterpillar's Chief Executive Officer Jim Owens said he expects the U.S. economy, including the housing market, to begin recovering next year.

``We will get this problem behind us,'' Owens said in a July 22 interview with Bloomberg Television. ``It will probably take another six months to a year, but it will come back.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 24, 2008 10:39 EDT

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