July 17 (Bloomberg) -- The Icelandic government’s bid for European Union membership may stumble over agriculture and fisheries and its ability to convince islanders to back entry, political scientist Einar Mar Thordarson said.

The island’s parliament voted yesterday to begin accession talks with the EU and hold a referendum later in the year.

The Social Democratic-led government is targeting membership and a fast track to euro adoption as a way out of the economic crisis that has crippled the financial system and caused the collapse of its currency. A stumbling block may be concern the island will lose control over its fisheries, which account for 39 percent of exports.

“The primary hurdle will be the EU’s fisheries and agricultural policy, which might cause intense debate between Iceland and the bloc,” said Thordarson of the University of Iceland by phone from Reykjavik. “We shouldn’t forget that Icelanders are narrowly divided on membership. It’s not a given that a membership deal will be approved in a referendum.”

A Gallup poll in May showed 39 percent of Icelanders favor joining the union while 38.6 percent were against. When asked whether Iceland should begin accession talks, 60 percent said they were in favor while 27 percent were opposed.

“For the past 10 years, Icelanders have been divided into three groups, 40 percent favor membership, 40 percent oppose membership and 20 percent are undecided,” said Thordarson.

Switching from the krona to the euro is also a priority for Iceland, Thordarson said, adding that the government may seek to get exemptions from the Maastricht Treaty to adopt the euro immediately instead of waiting for two years in the exchange- rate mechanism, a pre-adoption test of currency stability.

“That could be facilitated with some sort of an adjustment to ERM II, which would allow for the krona to be pegged to the euro bringing about stability and shelter at the European Central Bank,” said Thordarson.

To contact the reporter on this story: Omar R. Valdimarsson in London at valdimarsson@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: July 16, 2009 20:00 EDT