Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co.'s machinists, on the third day of a strike over job security and compensation, may be walking the picket lines for more than a month, if history and industry analysts prove any guide.

The members of the Chicago-based planemaker's largest union, the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers, have stopped work over three of the last six contracts. Those strikes lasted four to 10 weeks.

``I would expect this one's going to be long,'' said Scott Hamilton, founder of Seattle-based aviation consultancy Leeham Co. who's been following Boeing for 20 years. ``There are some pretty serious issues that they're pretty far apart on.''

The union's 27,000 members in Washington, home to Boeing's Seattle-area manufacturing hub, Kansas and Oregon are using the leverage of a record order backlog and the tight timetable of Boeing's delayed 787 Dreamliner in an effort to gain a sweetened deal from the planemaker. The company still needs to make about 40 jets a month to meet its 2008 deliveries forecast, and it had planned to test the Dreamliner in flight in November in order to start shipments in next year's third quarter.

Boeing, which trails only Airbus SAS in commercial planemaking, last week said a protracted strike would keep the 787, its most successful new plane based on orders, from flying this year. Airlines have been counting on newer, more fuel-efficient aircraft to help them battle record oil prices.

Boeing rose $1.02 to $63.91 at 4:01 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has dropped 37 percent since the first of three 787 delays was announced in October. Toulouse, France-based Airbus, a unit of European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co., has beat Boeing in deliveries since 2003.

Contractor Slows Production

The strike led aircraft components maker Spirit AeroSystems Holdings Inc. to withdraw its previous 2008 financial forecast today and to reduce production volumes on some Boeing products. Some employees at the Wichita, Kansas-based company will work a reduced week, the company said. Spirit makes parts including the 787's nose section.

``We know the strike is disappointing customers and it's not good for the company or employees,'' Boeing spokesman Tim Healy said. ``No one benefits from a strike.''

A monthlong strike would shave 31 cents a share off Boeing's earnings and cost $2.8 billion in lost revenue, Merrill Lynch & Co. analyst Ronald Epstein of New York estimates. The last machinists' walkout, for 28 days in 2005, reduced Boeing's second-half profit by $300 million. Boeing was forecast to earn $5.81 a share this year, the average of 20 estimates in a Bloomberg analyst survey.

Boeing Proposal

Boeing offered the employees who make parts and assemble planes a package including an 11 percent raise over three years, bonuses and a 14 percent gain in pension payments. The proposal fell short of the 13 percent raise the IAM sought and didn't address its request to limit the use of outside contractors for work the machinists have traditionally done. Boeing also asked that workers pay higher medical co-pays and deductibles.

Union members voted to reject the contract and to walk out as of 12:01 a.m. Sept. 4. The contract was extended for 48 hours so the two sides could meet with federal mediators in Florida. The strike started Sept. 6 after no compromise was reached.

``There were no solid proposals back from the company,'' Mark Blondin, the union's national aerospace coordinator and a participant in the Florida talks, said in an interview yesterday. ``It was really just a lot of what- ifs.''

`Worse Than Most'

Blondin said he's open to talking with Boeing again with the caveat that ``it's got to be on improvements in the areas of job security, health care, wages and pension. They can't just move existing money around. There's got to be new money put into it and new job security.''

Richard Aboulafia, an analyst with aviation consultancy Teal Group in Fairfax, Virginia, who has been a Boeing watcher for more than 20 years, said this strike ``seems a little worse than most.''

``It's hard to tell what's posturing and what's an unbridgeable gap,'' Aboulafia said. ``In a few weeks, cooler heads might begin to reassess.''

The average machinist is 46 years old and makes $26 an hour, or about $54,000 a year. About 2,300 are under age 30 and more than 4,000 earn less than $30,000, according to the IAM.

Many of the workers have been stashing away money from overtime they've worked as Boeing stepped up production to meet airlines' demands, IAM spokeswoman Connie Kelliher said. The union also is helping some members find temporary jobs, and strike pay would be $150 a week starting in the third week of a walkout, she said.

`They'll Start Hurting'

Organizers for the Puyallup Fair, which is running through Sept. 21 just south of Seattle, said they'd hire any Boeing workers on the spot, Kelliher said. The annual fair is the largest single attraction in Washington.

``I think we'll start hearing from Boeing after a month,'' Charlie Peters, a 21-year Boeing aircraft sealer who's now on his fourth strike, said as he walked the picket line in Everett, Washington. ``Anything past a month and they'll start hurting.''

Boeing had $10.2 billion in cash and marketable securities as of June 30, giving it some cushion. The company earned $8.86 billion in annual net income from 2005 through 2007 amid record orders from airlines that now total $275 billion and would keep machinists busy building planes for about eight years.

No new talks have been scheduled.

``We gave it a really good shot,'' Boeing's Healy said. ``We had intense talks with the union and the federal mediator and we didn't come close to an agreement. We'll just have to see what happens from here.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 8, 2008 16:10 EDT