Oct. 21 (Bloomberg) -- In Little Havana, once the heart of Miami's Cuban exile community and a reliable bloc of Republican voters, it's easy to see the changing face of Florida's Hispanic population.

At storefronts that wire money, newer immigrants line up to send cash to Guatemala and Honduras. At Miami food kiosks, Colombian and Venezuelan arepa corn patties are as popular as Cuban pork sandwiches.

The Hispanic vote in Florida -- the fourth-largest U.S. state with 27 electoral votes -- is one of the biggest prizes in the presidential contest. In past elections, these voters, dominated by Cuban-Americans, have usually backed Republicans; this year, they may not. For the first time, Cubans no longer are the majority of Hispanics in the state, and some younger and less well-off members of the community are more likely to consider voting Democratic than their elders.

That spells trouble for Republican presidential candidate John McCain, who is lagging in overall state polls and who needs to capture Florida to win the White House.

`Economic Issues'

``What we're seeing is the domination of economic issues leading'' Hispanics to vote more Democratic this year, said Dario Moreno, director of the Metropolitan Center at Florida International University in Miami. ``The question is: Is the economy bad enough, is Obama different enough and compelling enough of a candidate to get these newly registered people to vote for him.''

Hispanic voters are 12 percent of Florida's electorate, and for the first time since the state started reporting registration by race or ethnicity, Democrats now outnumber Republicans among them by almost 68,000 registered voters, according to figures released Oct. 19 by Florida's secretary of state. Almost one in three Florida Hispanics aren't registered with either major party.

Four years ago, President George W. Bush won Florida's Hispanic vote 56 percent to 44 percent, helping him to carry the state.

This year, several recent polls show the Hispanic vote in Florida in a statistical tie, with a slight advantage for McCain, according Steven Ochoa, vice president of research at the William C. Velasquez Institute, a Los Angeles-based Hispanic public policy organization. An Oct. 5 Mason-Dixon Poll, for example, had McCain leading Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama 49 to 44 percent among Florida Hispanics, within the margin of error.

Obama Advantage

Mexican-Americans in California, Texas and New Mexico and Puerto Ricans in New York largely vote Democratic, and surveys, including a Zogby Poll released yesterday, show Hispanics nationwide favor Obama by a 2-to-1 margin. Florida has always been an anomaly.

Yet the state is changing. At a Dominican barber shop in Miami's working-class Allapattah neighborhood, posters of Obama emblazoned with ``Cambio'' -- ``Change'' -- adorn the window. The manager, Michael Avila, 33, said he identifies with the Illinois senator because ``he comes from a single-parent family, he had to work hard, he's multiracial like many Dominicans.''

Avila said he hasn't voted in the past, though he will this year because ``the economy is a mess.''

Many of Florida's Hispanics remain conservatives, however. They include longtime Cuban exiles, evangelical Christians, entrepreneurs who fled leftist governments in Venezuela and Nicaragua or Marxist guerrilla movements in Colombia and Peru. Many are turned off by Obama's stated willingness to talk to Cuban leaders Fidel and Raul Castro and Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez. They also don't like the Democrat's opposition to Latin American free-trade deals.

McCain's Appeal

Arizona Senator McCain, who bucked his party by pushing a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants, has impressed many Florida Hispanics. In June, he visited Colombia and Mexico to show his support for free trade and cooperation against drug trafficking. Obama, 47, hasn't visited Latin America since becoming a politician.

``John McCain at great political risk tried to achieve comprehensive immigration reform,'' said Hessy Fernandez, McCain's national Hispanic media spokeswoman. ``Where was Barack Obama?''

Among elderly Cuban exiles, the group that most strongly supports McCain, 72, there is palpable vitriol against Obama.

`Communist'

``I have to fight the communist who is Obama,'' said Odelia Montesinos, 79, a retired office worker who fled Castro's Cuba when she was 32, and now volunteers at McCain headquarters in Miami.

Republicans are confident that Cuban-Americans, still at least 40 percent of registered Hispanics in the state, will vote in far higher numbers than the new Democrats.

``The real issue is turnout, and the Republicans turn out more than Democrats in Florida,'' said Katie Gordon, press secretary for the Florida Republican Party.

She said she wasn't worried about Obama's gains in Florida because registered Democrats outnumbered Republicans in the last few elections in the state, yet ``we've elected President Bush twice, Governor Jeb Bush twice and Governor Charlie Crist,'' she said. Republicans hold the majority in the state House and Senate.

Still, even in the Cuban community that provided the winning edge for Republicans in the past, that support is slipping.

Ruben Granda, a former Republican from Little Havana, was born in Miami after his parents fled Cuba. He voted twice for Ronald Reagan and twice for George H.W. Bush. Yet on every issue that is important to him now -- from foreign policy to the economy -- Granda, 48, said Obama is aligned with his principles. He has seen a similar openness among other voters when he canvasses for the Democrat.

Switching Parties

``I got a lot of people switching parties from Republican to Democrat, and a lot were Cubans,'' he said.

Obama's campaign has allocated $20 million to Hispanic outreach nationally, including advertisements and Spanish- speaking field organizers, said Temo Figueroa, national Latino vote director for Obama. That's aside from $39 million invested in Florida for the general election -- close to half the amount McCain has available to spend nationwide. Figueroa said Obama is spending twice as much as McCain on Spanish-language television ads and triple the amount on Spanish radio ads in Florida.

Obama's message is getting through, said William Fuentes, 37, an electrician from Cuba who lives in Little Havana.

``No one's selling houses, there's no jobs,'' he said. ``I'm going to vote for Obama.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Indira Lakshmanan at in Miami, Florida or ilakshmanan@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 21, 2008 00:01 EDT