Jan. 10 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for jobless benefits unexpectedly fell in the holiday-shortened week ended Jan. 5, a time when the government typically has trouble adjusting for seasonal variations.

Initial jobless claims decreased by 15,000 to 322,000, a two-month low, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The number of people continuing to collect unemployment benefits also slipped from a two-year high.

Jobless claims around the turn of the year can vary widely due to difficulties adjusting for firing patterns around the holidays, economists said. A report last week that showed the jobless rate jumped as hiring slowed suggested the risk of a recession this year is increasing.

``The true test will be in the next several weeks when we don't have the holidays'' to mask the underlying trend, said Stuart Hoffman, chief economist at PNC Financial Services Group Inc. in Pittsburgh. For now, the figures are still short of ``being a red-light recession symbol,'' he said.

Builders, mortgage lenders and appraisers are among the housing-related businesses firing workers and the prospect that sales will slow is prompting others to limit hiring. Fewer jobs raise the risk that consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, will weaken and push the U.S. closer to a recession, economists said.

Housing `Spillover'

``The labor market is weakening,'' Sal Guatieri, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto, said before the report. ``Job losses are mounting in the construction and mortgage industries, and we are starting to see spillover beyond the housing sector.''

Economists had forecast initial claims would rise to 340,000 from 336,000 originally reported for the prior week, according to the median estimate of 39 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 320,000 to 350,000.

``This is a real tough time of year for us,'' said a Labor Department spokesman. ``It's tough to seasonally adjust the data at this time of year.'' That may be one reason why claims at the state level have been bouncing around in recent weeks, he said.

After the report, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was little changed, yielding 3.81 percent, down 1 basis point from yesterday.

The four-week moving average of new claims, a less volatile measure, fell to 341,000 from 344,000. The number of people staying on benefit rolls dropped to 2.702 million in the week that ended Dec. 29, from 2.754 million that was the highest since October 2005.

Unemployment Rate

The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the U.S. jobless rate, fell to 2 percent, from 2.1 percent. These data are reported with a one-week lag.

Twenty-nine states and territories reported an increase in new claims, while 23 reported a decrease, today's report said.

The government last week reported the unemployment rate in December rose to 5 percent, the highest in two years, from 4.7 percent the prior month. Employers added 18,000 workers that month, the lowest monthly gain since 2004.

Harvard University economist Martin Feldstein, head of the National Bureau of Economic Research and a member of the committee that dates U.S. economic cycles, said the odds of a recession had risen to more than 50 percent following the report.

Job-Market Gauges

Claims reflect weekly firings and tend to rise as job growth -- measured by the monthly non-farm payrolls report -- slows. Payrolls are considered a coincident indicator, meaning they reflect what is currently happening in the economy.

Job losses at builders, appraisers, mortgage lenders and other financial-service companies reflect the worsening housing slump and the collapse in subprime lending.

Moody's Corp., the second-biggest credit-ratings company, said this week it plans to cut about 275 jobs, or 7.5 percent of the workforce, and take a pretax charge due to an expected decline in issuance of rated-debt securities, New York-based Moody's said Jan. 7.

Other companies are also cutting staff.

Schaumburg, Illinois-based Motorola Inc., the largest U.S. maker of mobile phones, on Jan. 4 said it was eliminating about 7,500 jobs, or about a tenth of its workforce, after declining sales cut into profit.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc., which yesterday joined Morgan Stanley and Merrill Lynch in forecasting a recession, said the unemployment rate may rise to an average 6.2 percent by the end of 2008.

To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: January 10, 2008 09:02 EST