Oct. 13 (Bloomberg) -- Foreclosure rates will continue to climb through late next year, peaking only after the U.S. unemployment rate reaches 10.2 percent in the second quarter, the Mortgage Bankers said.

“This recession is like a hurricane: You’ve survived the storm and you have a big mess afterwards,” Jay Brinkmann, the chief economist of the Mortgage Bankers Association, said today at the group’s annual conference in San Diego. The effects of the recession, which he said probably ended in July, will linger for “some time” in the form of higher unemployment, fewer mortgage originations and lower business development, he said.

Brinkmann forecasts $1.56 trillion in mortgage originations for 2010, down about 21 percent from a projected $1.96 trillion for this year.

To contact the reporter on this story: Dawn Kopecki in Washington at dkopecki@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 13, 2009 17:24 EDT