Nov. 21 (Bloomberg) -- Representative Mike Fitzpatrick says he knows exactly why he was unseated in this month's congressional elections: Independent voters deserted him.

Fitzpatrick, who represents the Bucks County suburbs north of Philadelphia, is one of the House Republicans whose losses handed control of Congress to Democrats. Much of the Republican defeat, strategists say, can be attributed to the party's previously fail-proof tactic of firing up its core supporters by appeals on social issues such as gay marriage.

This year, that approach backfired, particularly among young voters, who are more likely than others to call themselves independents, and who overwhelmingly backed Democrats.

``We just got totally whipped among independent voters,'' said Joe Gaylord, a Republican campaign consultant and adviser to former Republican House Speaker Newt Gingrich. Republicans ``have to focus more broadly than just on social conservatives.''

With Democrats and Republicans voting largely along party lines, the election hinged on independents, who split 57 percent to 39 percent for Democrats, according to an exit poll conducted for U.S. television networks.

That suggests Republicans need to move beyond the social- issue strategy devised by President George W. Bush's chief political adviser, Karl Rove, said Ed Rollins, a strategist who ran Ronald Reagan's presidential campaign.

``The danger for Republicans is that more and more people, particularly younger people, are really independent,'' said Rollins. ``We are very narrow-based at this point.''

Alternative View

Some Republicans disagree. ``If there were a longstanding problem with independent voters, moderates like Heather Wilson and Jim Gerlach wouldn't have won'' in New Mexico and Pennsylvania, said Ed Patru, a spokesman for the National Republican Congressional Committee. ``There were certainly Republican incumbents who won in very difficult seats with daunting atmospherics. They did so by not only keeping their base, but by appealing to independents.''

That doesn't ring true to Fitzpatrick, who lost his seat by about 1,500 votes. He said it's time for the party to make some difficult tradeoffs. Those include adopting policies important to independents -- such as protecting the environment and supporting stem-cell research -- even if it means alienating those in the party who want to focus on social issues like gay marriage, guns and abortion.

``Voters are seeking to support candidates who are for reform and who put first the kitchen-table agenda,'' said Fitzpatrick.

Keystone State

Pennsylvania, where Republicans lost more seats than in any other state this year, will be pivotal in the presidential and congressional races of 2008. John Brabender, a consultant for Pennsylvania Republicans like Senator Rick Santorum, who lost, and Gerlach, who won, says a new ``turnout model'' is emerging.

``You start with 25 percent being Republican in name only,'' he said. ``You can no longer win elections just playing to the base.''

Data from the American National Election Studies, a survey- research firm in Ann Arbor, Michigan, bolsters the case: The percentage of people who say they are independents has grown from 23 percent of the electorate just after World War II to more than one-third today.

Two key subgroups are becoming crucial within the independent vote: the young and the non-religious, said Scott Keeter, director of survey research at the Pew Research Center in Washington.

Among those 30 and younger, Democratic House candidates got 60 percent of the vote, while 38 percent backed Republicans. At the same time, exit polls suggest this group is still up for grabs, with nearly a third of young voters saying they made up their minds about how to vote in the final days of the campaign.

`Not Really Moved'

The Republican approach held little sway for many in this age group, said Keeter. ``They tend to be either pro-gay marriage or more indifferent to the issue compared with older voters,'' he said. ``Republican appeals on that issue have not really moved them.''

Fitzpatrick said he saw more interest from young and independent voters on issues such as the environment and the federal budget deficit this year.

In the battleground state of Missouri, a debate over embryonic stem-cell research helped tip the Senate to the Democrats, with incumbent Republican Jim Talent losing his seat to Democrat Claire McCaskill. She supported a state initiative to protect the right to conduct any stem-cell research permitted under federal law, while Talent didn't.

Rove Approach

Limiting stem-cell research has been a chief goal of Christian conservatives troubled by the ethical implications of destroying a human embryo. The Rove strategy of targeting religious voters proved so successful in 2004 that Democrats recruited a number of anti-abortion candidates for Congress this year, seeking to neutralize the Republican advantage.

In the end, the non-religious were probably more influential, according to the Pew analysis. While voters who regularly attend church services voted solidly Republican, as they did four years ago, those who never go to church shifted, with 67 percent of them voting Democratic, compared to 55 percent four years ago.

``All year, people talked about the Democrats' God problem,'' said Keeter. ``In this election you might reframe that and say the Republicans had trouble appealing beyond the traditionally religious.''

Republicans face a delicate balancing act if they are to win back independent voters, said Brabender, the Republican campaign consultant.

Threading a Needle

``The challenge is how to be conservative enough to get some of those crossover'' votes from anti-abortion Democrats and Republicans ``but not too conservative to turn off independent- minded voters,'' he said.

There's one other option, according to several Republicans, including Representative Tom Davis of Virginia, a former chairman of the National Republican Congressional Committee: waiting for the Democrats to alienate independents.

With Democrats in control of Congress, Republicans, particularly in the House, have little influence over the agenda, he said. At some point, Davis said, Democrats will face demands from their own base -- and if that leads to tax increases, overzealous hearings on Bush policies or runaway spending, independents will be put off.

Democrats have about a year to show results on the Iraq war, the budget deficit and other issues that brought independents out to back them, said Democratic pollster Doug Schoen. Otherwise, 15 to 20 of the 29 seats Democrats gained could easily return to Republican hands, he said.

In the meantime, Davis said, the Republicans' best resource for rehabilitating their image is the man many believe cost them the election: Bush.

``For better or worse the face of the party is going to be the president,'' said Davis. ``That may or may not be a good thing, depending on how he handles this. He's dug a pretty deep hole for us.''

To contact the reporters on this story: Heidi Przybyla in Boston at hprzybyla@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: November 21, 2006 00:08 EST