Dec. 1 (Bloomberg) -- U.S. auto sales probably fell in November when buyers shunned showrooms as the economy weakened and pleas for federal aid by General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC stirred concern of an automaker collapse.

Japanese automakers such as Toyota Motor Corp. and Honda Motor Co., which wouldn’t be included in a loan package, also sold fewer vehicles because of lower consumer confidence and tight credit availability, according to analysts. A decline would mark the 13th straight monthly drop for vehicle sales in the U.S., the longest slide in 17 years.

“The negative news has spread,” said Tom Libby, a Troy, Michigan-based analyst at market research firm J.D. Power & Associates. Sales at all the major automakers will fall at least 10 percent, he said.

The U.S. companies will report results tomorrow as they deliver plans to Congress showing how they would use federal loans to return to profitability. GM Chief Executive Officer Rick Wagoner told lawmakers two weeks ago that automakers need help before Barack Obama becomes president as a global credit crunch weighs on U.S. sales.

New vehicles probably sold at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 11 million in November, down 32 percent from a year earlier, based on a Bloomberg News survey of 26 analysts and economists. In October the annual selling rate was 10.6 million.

“There’s nothing to cheer about in the sales rate except perhaps it didn’t go down further,” said George Pipas, sales analyst for Dearborn, Michigan-based Ford. “During periods like this you’re looking for some point of stabilization.”

Projected Declines

A sales increase in November, usually a slow month, would be due mainly to “record high” incentives from the automakers and “remarkably lower gas prices,” said Jesse Toprak, director of industry analysis for automotive research firm Edmunds.com in Santa Monica, California.

When the automakers post results tomorrow, GM will likely say sales fell 33 percent in November, while Ford may post a 32 percent decline, based on the average estimate of five analysts. Chrysler may say sales plummeted 44 percent.

The depressed housing market, lack of access to credit and lower consumer confidence are weighing on new-vehicle demand.

Sales for Toyota, based in Toyota City, Japan, likely fell 27 percent and Tokyo-based Honda probably dropped 22 percent, based on the average of four analysts’ estimates. Tokyo-based Nissan Motor Co. may say sales fell 35 percent.

“It’s not just the domestics that are being hurt,” said Dennis Virag, president of Automotive Consulting Group in Ann Arbor, Michigan. “Everyone is struggling.”

U.S. Market Share

Toyota’s debt rating was lowered by Fitch Ratings on Nov. 26, the automaker’s first downgrade in 10 years. Fitch cut the carmaker’s unsecured debt two levels to AA from AAA with a negative outlook on the company due to the slump in U.S. sales drags down earnings.

U.S. automakers likely held 47 percent of the market in November, according to a report by Edmunds.com Nov. 24. That figure would match the companies’ market share in October, according to Autodata Corp. of Woodcliff Lake, New Jersey.

“Consumers remain very concerned about the economy,” said John McDonald, a spokesman for Detroit-based GM, declining to give a specific forecast for the industry. “Demand will remain at lowered levels until the credit and financial situations appreciably improve and consumer confidence makes a significant rebound.”

GM said Nov. 7 it would run out of cash by the end of the year without government assistance. During congressional hearings last month, Ford CEO Alan Mulally and Chrysler’s Robert Nardelli argued a GM failure would ripple through the supply chain and cripple all automakers.

Debate in Congress

“Widespread talk of bankruptcy in the press” had the potential to reduce the monthly sales rate, Rod Lache, a New York-based analyst with Deutsche Bank AG, wrote in a note to investors Nov. 24.

Democratic leaders have been seeking to tap the $700 billion bank-bailout fund, in addition to $25 billion in low- interest loans already approved by Congress to help retool factories to make more-efficient autos. Republicans want to speed access to the energy-efficiency money and leave the bank funds off limits.

Automakers may not see higher sales next year.

Goldman Sachs Group Inc. cut its estimate for U.S. vehicle sales this year to 13.4 million compared with a previous forecast of 13.8 million, and 11 million in 2009 from 13 million, according to a Nov. 26 report. Hyundai Motor Co. said Nov. 25 auto sales may drop to as low as 10 million next year, the lowest since 1981.

Consumer Sentiment

Ford began offering employee pricing for all buyers on Nov. 19 for almost all its 2008 and 2009 Ford, Lincoln and Mercury brands. GM started a “Red Tag” promotion almost 10 days early this year, on Nov. 15, where prices include all cash back incentives. Chrysler promised $6,000 cash back on its 2008 300C sedan and Toyota is offering no-interest loans on more than half its models.

They’re struggling against a decline in U.S. personal spending in October by 1 percent, the most since the 2001 contraction. The drop in purchases followed a 0.3 percent retreat in September, the Commerce Department said Nov. 26.

Consumer sentiment improved slightly in November, with the Conference Board’s confidence index rising to 44.9 from a record low 38.8 the prior month, the private New York-based research group said Nov. 25.

All of the automakers started incentive programs in November to try and draw consumers.

Shares Fall

GM fell 65 cents, or 12 percent, to $4.59 at 4:15 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. The stock has fallen 82 percent this year.

Ford fell 14 cents, or 5.2 percent, to $2.55. Ford’s shares have fallen 62 percent this year. The company said today it may sell its Volvo unit, the last remnant of a strategy to diversify by buying European luxury brands.

GM’s 8.375 percent bonds due in July 2033 slid 3 cents to 20 cents on the dollar, yielding 41.74 percent, according to Trace, the bond-pricing service of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority.

Ford’s 7.45 percent note due in July 2031 fell 3 cents to 23 cents on the dollar, yielding 32.44 percent.

The following table provides estimates for car and light- truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are percentage changes from November 2007. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The SAAR average is based on forecasts from eight analysts and a survey of 18 economists. The analysts’ estimates are based on daily selling rates. November had 25 selling days.

Analyst                   GM       Ford      Chrysler   SAAR

Christopher Hopson         N/A      N/A       N/A       10.7
     (IHS Global Insight)
Brian Johnson             -31      -34%      -44%       11
     (Barclays Capital)
Richard Kwas              -29%     -32%      -44%       11.1
     (Wachovia)
Rod Lache                 -42%     -33%      -45%       10.5
     (Deutsche Bank)
Itay Michaeli              N/A      N/A       N/A       11.8
     (Citigroup)
Himanshu Patel            -30%     -34%      -42%       10.9
     (JPMorgan Chase & Co)
John Sousanis             -36%     -28%      -46%       10.8
     (Ward’s Automotive)
Jesse Toprak              -28%     -33%      -42%       11.5
     (Edmunds.com)

Bloomberg Economists       N/A      N/A       N/A       10.6
     (Average of 18 estimates)


AVERAGE:                   -33%    -32%       -44%      11

To contact the reporter on this story: Alex Ortolani in Southfield, Michigan, at aortolani1@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: December 1, 2008 17:00 EST