By Bob Willis
Jan. 24 (Bloomberg) -- The number of Americans filing first-time claims for unemployment benefits unexpectedly dropped for a fourth week, indicating companies are reluctant to fire workers until they get a better read on the economic slowdown.
Initial jobless claims decreased by 1,000 to 301,000 in the week ended Jan. 19, from a revised 302,000 a week earlier, the Labor Department said today in Washington. The four-week moving average, a less volatile measure, fell to a three-month low of 314,750, from 328,750 the prior week.
Benefit claims may increase as economic growth slows, economists said. Weekly jobless claims are difficult to interpret during the weeks before and after the year-end holidays because of seasonal hiring and firings, economists said.
``Claims continue to confound,'' said Ian Shepherdson, chief U.S. economist at High Frequency Economics Ltd. in Valhalla, New York. ``This is nothing more than a seasonal adjustment problem. This period of distortion will soon be over, and the upward underlying trend will reassert itself.''
Economists expected claims to rise to 320,000 from the previously reported 301,000 for the week ended Jan. 12, according to the median of 39 forecasts in a Bloomberg News survey. Estimates ranged from 300,000 to 350,000.
The number of claims last week was the lowest level in almost four months.
Treasury Yields
Treasury securities remained higher after the figures. The yield on the benchmark 10-year note was 3.57 percent at 8:55 a.m. in New York, compared with 3.60 percent late yesterday.
The number of people staying on benefit rolls declined to 2.672 million, according to today's report, from 2.747 million in the week ended Jan. 12. Some economists view the level of continuing claims as a more accurate gauge of the labor market than initial claims.
``Jobless claims continue to look extremely tame given all of the economic jitters,'' Avery Shenfeld, an economist at CIBC World Markets in Toronto, wrote in a note to clients. ``We'll get a better read in mid-February,'' when the ``seasonal adjustment is smaller.''
The unemployment rate among people eligible for benefits, which tends to track the U.S. jobless rate, dropped to 2 percent in the week ended Jan. 12, from 2.1 percent a week earlier.
Recession concerns increased after the government reported Jan. 4 that unemployment jumped to 5 percent, a two-year high, in December and employers added 18,000 workers, the lowest gain since 2004.
Fed Rate Cut
The Federal Reserve on Jan. 22 cut its benchmark rate by three-quarters of a percentage point to 3.5 percent, its first emergency reduction since 2001. The Fed said it took the action ``in view of a weakening of the economic outlook and increasing downside risks to growth.''
In today's report, 36 states and territories reported an increase in new claims, while 17 had a decline. This data is also reported with a one-week lag.
Weekly claims averaged 340,000 the final two months of 2007 and 322,200 for the entire year. In 2006, claims averaged 313,000.
Weakness in the labor market, along with the slumping housing market and higher energy costs, may already be weighing on consumer spending.
Sales at U.S. retailers may rise 0.5 percent in January, the International Council of Shopping Centers said Jan. 23, lowering its forecast for a second time this month.
Cutting Back
Construction, finance and housing service companies have been leading the cutbacks in staff as home building and mortgage lending tumble.
Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc., the largest U.S. underwriter of mortgage-backed bonds, will eliminate 1,300 jobs in the firm's fourth round of cuts resulting from the collapse of the mortgage market.
``It was necessary for us to structure our mortgage origination businesses in the U.S. to reflect the change in industry dynamics,'' Ted Janulis, global head of mortgages, said in the statement Jan. 17.
Bank of America Corp., the second-largest U.S. bank, will scale back its structured products unit and sell the prime brokerage that caters to hedge funds, eliminating 650 jobs, Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Lewis told reporters in New York on Jan. 15.
To contact the reporter on this story: Bob Willis in Washington at bwillis@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 24, 2008 08:57 EST
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