By Eduard Gismatullin
Aug. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil fell for a second day in New York on concern the subprime-debt debacle will reduce U.S. economic growth.
Any U.S. slowdown would cut demand for oil, while supply is increasing. OPEC oil production rose last month by the most since September 2004, a Bloomberg News Survey showed. Global stock and metals prices fell today on concern the rout in U.S. debt markets may erode growth.
``We have a weaker economic picture than most people expected,'' said Harry Tchilinguirian, a senior oil market analyst at BNP Paribas in London. The slowing U.S. housing market ``eventually would be pointing at lower spending by consumers.''
Crude oil for September delivery declined as much as $1.65, or 2.2 percent, to $73.83 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $74.39 at 12:34 a.m. in London. Prices have fallen 6 percent since reaching a record $78.77 on Aug.1.
Brent crude oil for September settlement dropped as much as $1.40, or 1.9 percent, to $73.35 a barrel on the ICE Futures exchange, and traded at $73.50 at 12:18 p.m. in London.
The 10 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries with production quotas, all except Angola and Iraq, increased output by 85,000 barrels to 26.595 million barrels a day, according to a Bloomberg News survey.
OPEC Cuts
The 10 countries, in an effort to maintain prices around $60, pledged to trim 1.7 million barrels a day in two rounds of cuts, one that started Nov. 1 and another that took effect Feb. 1. The 10 members pumped 27.5 million barrels a day in October.
OPEC's basket price, a weighted average of 11 blends produced by the member nations, fell 16 cents to $72.01 a barrel on Aug. 3.
OPEC ministers are scheduled to hold their next conference on Sept. 11 in Vienna. The group is unlikely to increase crude oil production before its scheduled meeting, Algerian Energy Minister Chakib Khelil said, as cited by Kuwait News Agency yesterday.
Iraqi output rose 310,000 barrels to an average 2.235 million barrels a day last month, the highest since October 2004, the survey showed. Nigerian production climbed 150,000 barrels to an average 2.2 million barrels a day last month, the highest since February.
``These are bearish numbers from OPEC,'' said Edo Gerbrands, a trader with Fortis Bank in Brussels. ``People are a bit surprised; we are still in the period of OPEC cuts.''
New York oil futures, based on West Texas Intermediate grade crude, rose to a record $78.77 a barrel on Aug. 1. as investors bought contracts betting on rising summer fuel demand in the U.S. and the risk of supply disruption during the North Atlantic hurricane season.
`Remain High'
``We think prices will remain high for a couple of months,'' said Stefan Wieler, a commodities analyst at Julius Baer Holding AG in Zurich. ``Seventy-five dollars a barrel is not a bad price; I think we will hold that.''
Hedge fund managers and other speculators increased their bets on rising prices to a record in the week ended July 31. Net-long positions in New York oil contracts, the difference between orders to buy and sell oil, rose 17 percent to 127,491 contracts, the highest since at least 1993, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said Aug. 3.
``This backward-looking statistic has since been overtaken by events,'' David Thomas, a London-based analyst at Citigroup Global Markets, wrote in a report. There is ``a big hike in refinery utilization and a consequent product build, weak U.S. economic data, and a downward revision to forecast Gulf of Mexico hurricane activity.''
Eight Hurricanes
Eight hurricanes are likely to form this season, Colorado State University forecasters said Aug. 3, down from the nine they predicted before the season started June 1. Storms and hurricanes in the Gulf of Mexico can disrupt U.S. oil production and tanker traffic.
About 80 percent of the storms occur between August and October, according to National Hurricane Center data. No storms are expected to form during the next two days, the center said on its Web Site.
In U.S. dollars, WTI has fallen about 3 percent in the past 12 months. Oil has dropped 9 percent in euros, 9 percent in British pounds and was unchanged in yen.
To contact the reporter on this story: Eduard Gismatullin in London at egismatullin@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: August 6, 2007 07:37 EDT
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