Aug. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Florida’s population declined for the first time since 1946 as the housing-market collapse cut migration, research shows, making it harder for the state to balance a budget dependent on sales taxes.

The fourth-most populous U.S. state lost 58,294 residents in the year to April, Stan Smith, director of the University of Florida’s Bureau of Economic and Business Research, said in an interview. It’s the first decline since military personnel stationed in Florida left after World War II, he said.

“The housing meltdown made it difficult for people in other states to sell their homes if they wanted to move to Florida,” Smith said today from Gainesville. A report of his findings will be published by the university today.

Rising property taxes, increased homeowner insurance costs since the 2004-2005 hurricane season and competition for retirees from other states such as Georgia will damp population growth in coming years, said Smith, a demographer and economist.

“We’re guessing that growth will increase next year,” he said. “But probably not to the same level we’ve seen over the last three to four decades.”

State economists estimated Florida’s population at 18.8 million on April 1, 2008, up 2.8 million from the 2000 national census. Florida added the third-highest number of residents in the eight-year period after Texas and California, they said.

Revenue Dip

Florida’s credit outlook was put at “negative” by three bond-rating companies this year as lawmakers grappled with a $5 billion revenue shortage in the 2010 fiscal year that begin July 1. The gap in the $66.5 billion budget was closed with a $1-a- pack cigarette-tax increase, higher transaction fees, spending cuts and U.S. stimulus funds.

Sales-tax collections, which brought in 27 percent of revenue in 2008-2009 in a state without a personal-income tax, fell 10 percent last year. That leaves Florida vulnerable to population movements and the housing market, Standard & Poor’s analyst John Sugden-Castillo said.

“The state’s primary growth driver is population growth, mostly through in-migration,” Sugden-Castillo said in a report yesterday reiterating his “negative” outlook for $13.8 billion of state debt. “Housing-value declines, high foreclosure rates and high unemployment are also likely to affect discretionary spending and, therefore, sales tax revenues.”

Jobless Figures

State economists forecast that total revenue will fall 13.1 percent this fiscal year, the third year of decline, because of rising joblessness and plunging home values. The unemployment rate rose to 10.6 percent in June, the highest in more than 33 years. The median single-family-home price was down 28 percent that month from a year earlier, the Florida Association of Realtors said.

“Relying so heavily on sales taxes adds to the volatility of government revenue,” said Smith, whose research is based on electric-company connections and disconnections, building permits and real estate records. “Other taxes, such as on real- estate transactions, are also linked to population.”

Florida faces a more difficult economic recovery than the nation as a whole, said Mark Vitner, a senior economist at Wells Fargo Securities LLC in Charlotte, North Carolina.

“The Sunshine State went into recession a full nine months ahead of the nation,” Vitner said in a June report. He predicted a turnaround in late 2010 or early 2011, “about a year later than the nation.”

To contact the reporter on this story: Jerry Hart in Miami at jhart@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: August 18, 2009 13:14 EDT