Dec. 3 (Bloomberg) -- The unemployment rate crept higher in November and job growth fell short of the year's average, signs of a slowing U.S. economy, according to forecasts ahead of a government release this week.

The jobless rate edged up to 4.5 percent during the month from a five-year low of 4.4 percent, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed by Bloomberg News before the Labor Department's report Dec. 8. Employers hired 105,000 more workers following a 92,000 October increase that was the smallest in a year, according to the survey.

The number of jobs being created and the income generated by those jobs has so far been enough to prevent consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of the economy, from faltering. Figures last week showed the economic slowdown was extending beyond the real estate market.

``Construction and manufacturing are certainly the anchors weighing down growth at the moment,'' said Joshua Shapiro, chief U.S. economist at Maria Fiorini Ramirez Inc. in New York. ``Consumer spending is hanging in there, but there are certainly a lot of crosscurrents that will lead to pretty anemic growth in the fourth quarter and probably the first quarter as well.''

Payrolls have grown by an average 147,000 a month so far this year.

The Labor Department's employment report is also forecast to show that workers' earnings rose 0.3 percent in November, or 4.2 percent from the same time last year. The 12-month gain would be the largest since February 2001 and explains Federal Reserve Chairman Ben S. Bernanke's optimism about the economy.

Growth Rebound

Growth in 2007 will ``return to a rate that is roughly in line with the growth rate of the economy's underlying productive capacity,'' Bernanke said in a Nov. 28 speech.

``This scenario envisions that consumer spending -- supported by rising incomes and the recent decline in energy prices -- will continue to grow'' and that the drag from the housing and the automobile industries will diminish, he said.

Investors are skeptical. The yield on the benchmark 10-year Treasury note fell last week to the lowest since January as traders increased bets the Fed will need to respond to slower growth by reducing its rate target next year. Interest-rate futures contracts suggest a 100 percent chance policy makers will cut their benchmark overnight bank lending rate a quarter point to 5 percent by March.

Last week's readings on the economy signaled manufacturers are feeling the sting from weakness in the motor vehicle and housing industries. Factories throttled back production in response to fewer orders and growing inventories. Output contracted last month for the first time since April 2003, the Institute for Supply Management reported on Dec. 1. Manufacturing accounts for about 12 percent of the economy.

`More Weakness'

``The weakness in orders and obvious further declines in housing-related activity suggests more weakness in coming months,'' said Steven Wieting, managing director at Citigroup Global Markets Inc. in New York. ``If accompanied by downward price pressures, as we expect, the data will support a turn toward ease by the Fed.''

A report last week showed orders for durable goods fell by the most in more than six years, mainly reflecting fewer bookings for commercial jets. Demand for business equipment also weakened. The data showed orders for non-defense capital goods excluding aircraft suffered the largest drop since January 2004.

Manufacturers have responded by slashing jobs. After eliminating 78,000 workers from payrolls in the previous four months, factories cut 15,000 jobs in November, according to the Bloomberg survey median.

Fewer Construction Jobs

The housing slump is also resulting in job cuts at construction companies and related industries. Builders shed 26,000 jobs in October, the most since February 2003, the Labor Department said Nov. 3.

Reading, England-based Wolseley Plc, the world's biggest supplier of plumbing and heating equipment, said last week that it's eliminated 2,000 U.S. jobs because of the housing slowdown. Headcount at Stock, the company's Raleigh, North Carolina-based building-materials unit, has been reduced by 10 percent. Stock's roof trusses, plywood panels, windows and doors are sold through 314 outlets in 33 states.

The Labor Department's report on the number of Americans filing for unemployment insurance last week was littered with references to job cutbacks in the construction industry. Of the 22 states reporting an increase in jobless claims of 1,000 or more for the week ended Nov. 18, more than half cited layoffs in construction.

Non-Manufacturing Industries

The Institute for Supply Management's non-manufacturing survey, due Dec. 5, is expected to drop to 55.5 for November from 57.1 the prior month, as construction and manufacturing weakness spreads, according to the median estimate of economists surveyed.

Another report Dec. 5 is projected to show that worker productivity barely grew last quarter and labor costs were less threatening than previously estimated. Productivity, or what one worker can produce in an hour, rose at an annual rate of 0.4 percent from July through September, compared with a 1.2 percent gain the previous three months, economist expect revised figures from the Labor Department will show.

Labor costs adjusted for efficiency gains likely rose at a 3.3 percent pace in the third quarter, the report is also expected to show. The government's preliminary estimate issued last month showed no change in productivity for last quarter and a 3.8 percent gain in labor costs.

                         Bloomberg Survey

Date    Time   Period  Indicator               BN Survey   Prior
12/05    8:30   3Q F   Productivity              0.4%      0.0%
12/05    8:30   3Q F   Unit Labor Costs          3.3%      3.8%
12/05   10:00   Oct.   Factory Orders            -4.2%     2.1%
12/05   10:00   Nov.   ISM Non-Manufacturing     55.5      57.1
12/07    8:30  Nov. 25 Continuing Claims         2458K     2480K
12/07    8:30  Dec. 2  Initial Jobless Claims    325K      357K
12/07   15:00   Oct.   Consumer Credit           $4.1B    $-1.2B
12/08    8:30   Nov.   Avg. Hourly Earnings      0.3%      0.4%
12/08    8:30   Nov.   Change Nonfarm Jobs       105K       92K
12/08    8:30   Nov.   Unemployment Rate         4.5%      4.4%
12/08   10:00  Dec. P  Confidence- U. of MI      92.0      92.1

To contact the reporter on this story: Vince Golle in Washington at vgolle@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: December 3, 2006 09:35 EST