Feb. 2 (Bloomberg) -- A U.S. intelligence report says that the term ``civil war'' accurately describes elements of the Iraq conflict, and that the violence that grips the country would significantly worsen if American troops were withdrawn.

Iraq's government will be hard-pressed to bring about political reconciliation because of deep-rooted sectarian conflicts and a widespread ``winner-take-all attitude,'' according to unclassified portions of the report released today in Washington.

``Iraqi society's growing polarization, the persistent weakness of the security forces and the state in general, and all sides' ready recourse to violence are collectively driving an increase in communal and insurgent violence and political extremism,'' the National Intelligence Estimate for Iraq said.

The report didn't assess the likelihood of success for President George W. Bush's plan to add 21,500 troops to the 132,000 now in Iraq. It held out the possibility of progress toward reconciliation if Iraqi security forces and their U.S. partners are able to curb the violence.

Yet even if the bloodshed is diminished, ``Iraqi leaders will be hard pressed to achieve sustained political reconciliation'' over the next 12 to 18 months because none of the country's three major groups are in a mood to compromise, the report said.

`Deeply Insecure'

Iraqi Shiites, the largest of the three groups, are ``deeply insecure about their hold on power'' because of their decades-long domination by Sunnis, the report said. This makes Shiites unwilling to negotiate accommodations with the Sunnis and mistrustful of U.S. efforts to arrange such agreements.

Sunnis, on the other hand, are unwilling to accept minority status, view the Shiite-dominated central government as illegitimate and incompetent and fear that Shiite ascendancy will increase Iranian influence in Iraq.

Kurds, the third major group, while willing to participate in building an Iraqi state, are reluctant to surrender any of their autonomy and are moving to annex the oil-rich city of Kirkuk, putting them in conflict with Arab residents of the city.

Equally important, ``the absence of unifying leaders among the Arab Sunni or Shia with the capacity to speak for or exert control over their confessional groups limits prospects for reconciliation,'' the report concludes.

Iran and Syria

While Iran and Syria are contributing to the violence, ``the involvement of these outside actors is not likely to be a major driver of violence or the prospects for stability because of the self-sustaining character of Iraq's internal sectarian dynamics,'' the report said.

The Bush administration has repeatedly accused Iran of supplying sophisticated munitions to Iraqi Shiite militias and Syria of allowing foreign insurgents to cross from its territory into Iraq.

Bush is adding troops and has changed the military commanders of U.S. forces in Iraq as he revamps his strategy for the conflict, which has taken the lives of more than 3,000 American military personnel and tens of thousands of Iraqis since the U.S. invaded in 2003.

Spy Agencies

The office of the Director of National Intelligence, which oversees the nation's 16 spy agencies, prepared the classified, 60-page report for the White House and members of Congress. A nine-page unclassified report was made publicly available.

Stephen Hadley, Bush's national security adviser, called the review a ``tough look at Iraq'' that ``explains why the president concluded that a new strategy was required.''

Lawmakers from both parties have expressed doubts about Bush's new strategy. The U.S. Senate on Feb. 5 is to begin debate on a nonbinding resolution in opposition of Bush's troop increase.

``It's abundantly clear that what we need is not a troop surge, but a diplomatic surge, working closely with other countries in the region,'' said Senator Ted Kennedy, a Massachusetts Democrat. ``Sending more U.S. troops into the cauldron of this civil war is not the solution to Iraq's political problems.''

Most polls show widespread opposition to the war. In a Bloomberg News/Los Angeles Times poll conducted Jan. 13-16, 60 percent of U.S. adults said they oppose Bush's decision to send more troops to Iraq.

Difficult

The report said Iraqi Security Forces will find it difficult to take on a greater responsibility for Iraq security, a key component of many plans for reducing the U.S. presence in the country. Many Iraqi units, the report said, are plagued by the same sectarian divisions that are the cause of violence in the country at large.

The report warned of the risk of a further increase in violence if sustained sectarian killings continue or if major political or religious leaders are assassinated. Such events may spark an ``abrupt'' increase in violence with ``grave humanitarian, political, and security consequences.''

The report said that while the term civil war ``does not adequately capture the complexity of the conflict in Iraq,'' it accurately describes ``key elements'' of it, including hardening sectarian and ethnic identities, ``a sea change in the character of the violence'' and population displacements.

`Civil War'

U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates and Marine General Peter Pace, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, both disputed the suggestion that Iraq is in a civil war.

``When I think of a civil war, I think of thousands of people out in the streets killing each other,'' Gates said at a Pentagon press conference. ``What I see in Iraq and the sectarian conflict are gangs of killers going after specific neighborhoods, going after specific targets, either individuals or other groups or terror attacks in marketplaces to inflict casualties.

``This isn't a divided army, a divided government, in the sense that I've always thought of a civil war,'' Gates said.

Pace, appearing with Gates, called the term ``a bumper sticker'' that ``really doesn't help solve the problem.''

The defense funding request Bush plans to submit to Congress next week includes $93.4 billion in additional money for fiscal 2007 to cover costs of the fighting in Iraq and Afghanistan and $141.7 billion for the wars in fiscal year 2008, according to a Pentagon document.

To contact the reporter on this story: Nicholas Johnston in Washington at njohnston3@bloomberg.net or

Last Updated: February 2, 2007 15:52 EST