By Matthew Brown and Anchalee Worrachate
Nov. 18 (Bloomberg) -- Gulf states, including Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, may revalue their currencies while maintaining their pegs to the U.S. dollar, a person familiar with Saudi monetary policy said.
The states may revalue by an unspecified amount in as soon as a month's time, the person, who declined to be identified because the matter is confidential, said yesterday. No decision has been made on whether to revalue, he said. The comments came as heads of state of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries began a summit meeting in Riyadh.
Gulf states are facing record inflation, caused partly by the weakening dollar which has made imports from Europe more expensive. Consumer prices rose a record 4.9 percent in Saudi Arabia in August while inflation in the U.A.E. increased to a record 9.3 percent last year. Qatar has the highest inflation in the region, reaching 14.8 percent in the first quarter.
``It makes sense for them to do it,'' said Jens Nordvig, senior global markets economist at Goldman Sachs Group Inc. in New York, in a phone interview. ``Given the emerging inflation pressures, there are very good reasons for them to allow currency appreciation.''
The decline in the value of the dollar is a ``concern'' to OPEC members, Qatar's Energy Minister Abdullah Al-Attiyah said after a meeting of OPEC oil, finance and energy ministers in Riyadh Nov. 16.
Currency Basket
Saudi Arabia, Qatar, Bahrain and Oman have repeatedly said they have no plans to change exchange rate policies. U.A.E. Central Bank Governor Sultan Bin Nasser al-Suwaidi said on Nov. 15 the U.A.E. may drop the dirham's peg in favour of a basket of currencies. Gulf currencies are under pressure as investors bet governments cannot manage inflation and keep their pegs.
Heads of state from the six Gulf Cooperation Council states will hold their annual meeting in Qatar on Dec. 3-4 where they will discuss monetary policy and security. The person did not specify if a decision would be made at the meeting. Evidence has been gathered and will be presented to policy makers, he said, without giving details.
The leaders will, though, take a decision on whether to abandon a proposed Gulf single currency at the meeting, Hamad Saud al-Sayari, governor of the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency, said after a meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors in Riyadh on Oct. 27.
``It's unlikely they are going to move to a flexible system,'' Nordvig said. ``If they're going to make an adjustment, they should make one that matters. Something in the 5 to 10 percent range seems like a range that would have some impact without being overly dramatic.''
Record Low
The dollar slid to a record low of $1.4752 against the euro on Nov. 9, taking it down 10 percent since the start of this year, and has fallen versus 15 of the 16 most actively traded currencies tracked by Bloomberg in the past 10 1/2 months.
The Saudi riyal rose to a 20-year high after the Fed cut rates on Sept. 18 and the Saudi Arabian Monetary Agency chose not to follow. The riyal and the dirham rose this week after al- Suwaidi questioned the U.A.E.'s currency peg.
The riyal was trading at 3.725 to the dollar at 10.09 p.m. in Riyadh, 0.7 percent higher than the peg price of 3.75. Contracts to buy U.A.E. dirhams in 12 months time rose the most in at least 10 years on Nov. 15 after al-Suwaidi's comments, and were trading at a 2.5 percent premium to the spot price yesterday.
Venezuelan Support
Venezuela backed an Iranian proposal to add the group's concern over the falling dollar to a summit declaration to be made today. Saudi Arabian Foreign Minister Prince Saud Al-Faisal said that no mention of the dollar should be made in the declaration because he didn't want the U.S. currency to ``collapse.''
Nigerian Finance Minister Shamsudeen Usman said on Nov. 16 his country's law has been changed to allow it to diversify its foreign reserves out of dollars. Angola may shift its international reserves away from the dollar, Finance Minister Jose Pedro de Morais said.
OPEC's $6 billion development fund is hedging its exposure to the weakening dollar, Director-General Suleiman Jasir al- Herbish told reporters in Riyadh yesterday. ``The issue of the dollar in our investments, we are tackling it. We are hedging; we have other instruments.''
Saudi Arabia's King Abdullah said OPEC shouldn't make oil a source of conflict, contradicting Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez who wants the oil exporter group to become an active ``political agent.''
``Oil is an energy for building and prosperity, it shouldn't become a means of conflict,'' King Abdullah said at the start of the group's summit in Riyadh yesterday. ``Those who want OPEC to become an organization of monopoly and exploitation ignore the truth.''
Geopolitical Force
OPEC, provider of more than 40 percent of the world's oil, is holding its third heads of state summit since it was founded in 1960. Saudi Arabia's foreign minister clashed yesterday with a push by Iran and Venezuela to debate pricing oil in currencies other than the U.S. dollar.
``OPEC was born as a geopolitical force and not only as a technical or economic one in the '60s,'' Chavez said, speaking before King Abdullah. ``We should continue to strengthen OPEC, but beyond that, OPEC should set itself up as an active political agent.''
The contrasting view on OPEC's role in the world comes a day after a disagreement between Venezuela's Oil Minister Rafael Ramirez and Al-Faisal on whether to move away from the dollar was accidentally aired on live television.
Chavez said in his speech yesterday that he's confident OPEC will do what it can to keep oil prices at a ``fair'' level, adding that if Iran was invaded, prices could easily rise to $200 a barrel.
Market Stability
Crude oil for December delivery rose $1.67 to $95.10 a barrel Nov. 16 on the New York Mercantile Exchange.
The last OPEC heads of state summit was in 2000 in Venezuela and was hosted by Chavez, who was sworn in as president a year earlier. Iran and Venezuela both have tense political relations with the U.S.
Ibrahim Ibrahim, an executive at Qatar Petroleum, said that while Venezuela has helped OPEC become a stronger organization over the years, ``there is no need for OPEC to be a political force now. It just has to ensure that the oil market is stable.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Matthew Brown in Riyadh on mbrown42@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: November 17, 2007 17:01 EST
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