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MillerCoors Venture Puts Pressure on Anheuser, InBev (Update1)

By Mary Jane Credeur and Meera Bhatia

Oct. 10 (Bloomberg) -- Anheuser-Busch Cos. may come under pressure to combine with larger rival InBev NV after the formation of MillerCoors, a U.S. venture between SABMiller Plc and Molson Coors Brewing Co.

A merger between Anheuser and InBev, the world's two largest brewers, would give them control of one-fourth of the world beer market and be the biggest deal between brewers ever.

An InBev-Anheuser marriage would give each brewer more geographic diversity, analysts say. InBev dominates in Brazil and has large stakes in Europe and China, while Anheuser controls almost half of U.S. beer sales. SABMiller and Molson Coors, the second- and third-largest U.S. brewers, are combining their U.S. operations to catch up with Anheuser in the world's most profitable beer market.

``Psychologically, this will put pressure on Anheuser- Busch,'' Trevor Stirling, an analyst at Sanford C. Bernstein in London, said in a telephone interview. ``Shareholders will increasingly question Anheuser's future strategy.''

Anheuser-Busch Chief Financial Officer Randy Baker declined to comment on the brewer's plans. InBev spokeswoman Marianne Amssoms also declined to comment.

InBev, based in Leuven, Belgium, rose 86 euro cents, or 1.3 percent, to 66.55 euros in Brussels. Anheuser-Busch shares gained 69 cents, or 1.3 percent, to $52.26 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading.

Stella, Bass

InBev dethroned St. Louis-based Anheuser-Busch in 2006 as the world's largest brewer by sales. Combined, the two companies would control about 25 percent of the global beer market, Bear Stearns analysts wrote in February.

They already have ties. Last year, InBev sold its Rolling Rock lager to Anheuser-Busch for $82 million.

This year, Anheuser began importing InBev's European beers, including Stella Artois, Bass, Beck's and Hoegaarden, through its U.S. distribution network. The InBev brands represent about 1.5 percent of the U.S. beer market.

``Anheuser already believes they have hooked up with InBev, but it's not at all transformational like the SAB and Coors venture,'' said Thomas Russo, who manages $3.5 billion including Anheuser shares at Gardner Russo & Gardner in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. ``Anheuser faces more focused competition. They've got to do something.''

SABMiller and Molson Coors agreed yesterday to form a joint venture that would give them control of 30 percent of the U.S. beer market.

The new company, MillerCoors, will distribute brands from Miller Lite and Coors Light to imported Peroni Nastro Azzurro lager. The brewers predicted $500 million of annual savings from cuts in manufacturing, shipping and marketing.

`Globalization Game'

The competitive threat ``could potentially result in a much- speculated merger with InBev happening sooner rather than later,'' UBS AG analyst Melissa Earlam said in a note.

Anheuser controls about 48 percent of the U.S. beer market and depends on the U.S. for two-thirds of the beer it sells. The brewer has been under pressure to expand overseas or add liquor and non-alcoholic drinks after domestic volume growth slowed to 1.2 percent last year, following a 1.8 percent drop in 2005.

Anheuser-Busch Chief Executive Officer August Busch IV has repeatedly said the company will seek growth overseas and from new drinks that it distributes, such as Jekyll & Hyde liquor and Hansen Natural Corp.'s caffeinated Monster Energy drinks.

Yesterday, Busch said a ``timely opportunity'' for Anheuser may arise out of any disruption created by the formation of the MillerCoors joint venture. ``There will be significant transition confusion from this change, and it's up to us to capitalize on this disruption now,'' Busch said in a memo to employees and wholesalers yesterday, according to BrewBlog, an industry newsletter produced by SABMiller's U.S. unit.

Missing Out

So far, Anheuser missed out on the wave of consolidation that reshaped global brewers over the past five years.

SABMiller was formed in 2002 when South African Breweries Plc bought Miller Brewing Co. from Altria Group Inc. for $5.6 billion. Molson Coors was created in 2005 by the $3.4 billion combination of Molson Brewing and Adolph Coors Co. Belgium's Interbrew SA and Brazil's Cia. de Bebidas das Americas, or AmBev, combined in 2004 in an $11 billion deal to form InBev.

Some investors say a deal would likely see InBev buy Anheuser, rather than be a transaction structured as a merger of equals. InBev has a market value of about $56.9 billion, compared with Anheuser's $38.7 billion.

InBev's `Strength'

The dollar's weakness against the euro also ``improves InBev's relative strength,'' said Patrick Casselman, who manages about 500 million euros at KBC Asset Management in Brussels, including InBev shares. The euro is up 6.8 percent against the dollar this year.

The Busch family controls less than 2 percent of the brewer's stock, according to regulatory filings.

Still, patriarch August Busch III has ``strong leadership and influence'' with board members and the company's 600 distributors, and maintained ``control'' of the company that way, Bernstein analyst Robert van Brugge wrote in March.

The Busch family is descended from Adolphus Busch, the son- in-law and business partner of Eberhard Anheuser, who founded the brewery in 1860.

``The Busch family is probably reluctant to give up control,'' Sanford C. Bernstein's Stirling said.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mary Jane Credeur in Atlanta at mcredeur@bloomberg.net; Meera Bhatia in Oslo at mbhatia2@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 10, 2007 16:21 EDT

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