By Matthew Benjamin
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- Almost half of Americans plan to cut their spending this holiday season, and a quarter say they’ll spend a lot less on gifts than they did last year, according to the latest Bloomberg/Los Angeles Times poll.
Consumers are already scaling back purchases of nonessential items and saving more money as incomes stagnate and costs rise, according to the survey conducted Dec. 6-8. Only 1 of 10 respondents plans to increase holiday purchases.
“This Christmas, a card will have to do instead of presents for a lot of adult friends and family,” says Raymond Krasinski, 44, of North Port, Florida. Business has fallen off for the self-employed commercial real estate appraiser, who says he may sell his plane because he can’t afford the hangar fee.
He’s not alone. Consumer spending fell 1 percent in October, the biggest drop since 2001, the Commerce Department said last month. Retailers, expecting what could be the worst holiday-shopping season in four decades, are trying to lure shoppers with deep discounts, shrinking profit margins in the process. The biggest consumer-spending slump in three decades is likely to persist as home prices fall and job losses mount.
“The retail economy will be worse, as fewer people will be needed to make and ship and sell these goods,” says Nigel Gault, chief U.S. economist at Global Insight Inc. in Lexington, Massachusetts. “That’s bad news for both the U.S. and the global economy.”
Economic Worries
Plans to cut holiday purchases are more pronounced among respondents with lower incomes. A majority of households with annual income below $40,000 plan to buy less this season than last, as do about half of those making between $40,000 and $100,000. Only about one-third of households with more than $100,000 of income expect to spend less.
Worries about the economy were most-often cited to explain plans for reduced holiday spending. Some respondents say they plan to cut costs by searching for discounts and sales. Other people say falling incomes or higher costs in other areas leave less money for gifts.
“I just don’t know what the future holds,” says Carolyn Smith, 69, who owns a small advertising and public relations firm in Harrisburg, Pennsylvania. In addition to uncertainty, rising prices for food and office supplies are limiting the amount that Smith can use to buy holiday gifts.
About half those polled say they’re reducing purchases of nonessential items like furniture, electronics and restaurant meals. Among those with household income above $100,000, even more people -- 56 percent -- say they’re paring those discretionary purchases.
Saving More
One-third of Americans plan to save more money in the coming year than they did last year, according to the poll, while 15 percent say they’ll save less. More than 4 of 10 respondents say their savings won’t change.
About two-thirds of the people surveyed say their income is the same or lower than last year, while 30 percent say it has gone up. Yet more than 6 in 10 say expenses have risen since last year, according to the poll of 1,000 adults nationwide. The survey has a margin of sampling error of plus or minus 3 percentage points.
In a deteriorating economy, almost 40 percent of Americans say somebody in their households lost a job or suffered cutbacks in hours or pay during the past 12 months. Fifteen percent report that someone in their household had been fired or laid off.
Personal Finances
Only 56 percent of those surveyed describe their personal finances as very secure or fairly secure, the smallest number since the Los Angeles Times poll started asking that question in 1991. More than 4 in 10 characterize their finances as shaky. Among those with household incomes below $40,000, two- thirds consider their situations to be shaky. Almost 9 out of 10 respondents making more than $100,000 say their finances are secure.
Slightly more than 1 in 4 Americans carries revolving debt on a credit card, according to the poll, while 36 percent say they pay their credit cards off every month. About one-third say they don’t have credit cards.
Americans say they are reducing credit-card debt, with almost 3 in 10 saying they have less consumer debt than last year, and roughly 2 in 10 saying their debt has increased. About half say their debt level hasn’t changed.
“The smart thing to do is to marshal your cash until the economy levels off,” says poll respondent John Dudley, 71, of Riverside, California. The grant writer is dining out less, getting fewer haircuts and trimming other expenses, he says. “It could be a few years until the economy starts to recover.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Matthew Benjamin in Washington at mbenjamin2@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 10, 2008 17:00 EST
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