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Obama Gains in Iowa, Florida Give Him National Boost (Update2)

By James Rowley and Kristin Jensen

Oct. 12 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential nominee Barack Obama is ahead in a series of new polls from Florida to Iowa, gains that are helping him maintain a national lead over Republican John McCain.

Obama was on top in seven of 11 new state polls, while McCain claimed the advantage in Alabama, and the two were statistically tied in Georgia, North Carolina and one Ohio poll. The Democrat's edge, on average, is now more than 7 percentage points in national polls, according to realclearpolitics.com.

McCain is losing ground to Obama as Americans become more focused on the financial crisis. Polls have long shown that voters trust Obama more than McCain when it comes to handling the economy, and Obama is focusing on the issue at every stop.

``When the economy's in crisis, people want real answers,'' Pennsylvania Governor Ed Rendell, a Democrat, said on the ``Fox News Sunday'' program. ``Senator Obama has lengthened his lead, and that should be a clear message to the McCain campaign'' that recent personal attacks on Obama aren't working, Rendell said.

He said Obama's lead in Pennsylvania polls has widened from 2 percentage points to 13 since the economic crisis erupted.

Seeking Balance

Republican Governor Tim Pawlenty of Minnesota said voters will choose McCain's experience to avoid ``the entire nation run, imbalanced and without a check, by the Democrats.''

``I think people are going to come back to that reality as they get closer to the election,'' Pawlenty said on Fox today. ``I think people like balance.''

Senator Obama of Illinois has led McCain by at least 7 percentage points in the Gallup Poll's daily tracking survey in each of the last 10 days. The latest survey of 2,783 voters conducted Oct. 9-11 showed Obama ahead by 50 percent to 43 percent. The survey has a sampling error of plus or minus 2 percentage points.

The gains are reflected in state polls.

In Florida, Obama is ahead 49 percent to 44 percent for McCain, according to a survey by Research 2000 of 600 likely voters taken Oct. 6-8. The survey has a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points. In a poll in mid-September, McCain led Obama 46 percent to 45 percent.

Lead in Pennsylvania

Obama holds a 12-point lead in Pennsylvania, according to a Muhlenberg College tracking poll of 602 likely voters. That has grown from just 4 points in late September, equal to the survey's margin of error.

In Iowa, a state that President George W. Bush narrowly won four years ago, Obama leads McCain 54 percent to 41 percent, according to a SurveyUSA poll of 692 likely voters conducted Oct. 8-9. Three weeks ago, Obama's lead was 54 percent to 43 percent.

In Colorado, Obama is ahead 52 percent to 42 percent, according to a Public Policy Polling survey of 1,331 likely voters conducted Oct. 8-10. That is up from 7 points three weeks ago.

``I think people are starting to say to themselves, we're tired of the old ideology,'' Obama, 47, told about 250 donors at an Oct. 10 fundraiser in Philadelphia. He noted that the campaign was gaining in Republican strongholds such as Virginia, North Carolina and Montana.

Key for Republicans

Ohio is of particular interest because no Republican candidate has won the presidency without carrying the state. Two recent polls showed gains for Obama, with one giving him the lead in the state and the other a statistical tie.

An Ohio newspaper poll taken Oct. 4-8 of 876 likely voters found that McCain had 48 percent support to Obama's 46 percent, within the survey's 3.3 percentage point margin of error. Still, Obama gained 4 points over a similar survey three weeks ago, according to the Akron Beacon Journal, one of the newspapers involved in sponsoring the poll.

Obama is leading McCain 49 percent to 44 percent in Ohio, according to an Oct. 9 InsiderAdvantage/Poll Position survey of 509 likely voters with a sampling error of 4 percentage points. That is up from a 2-point lead in a Sept. 29 poll.

The race is tight in other battleground states such as North Carolina. McCain leads 48 percent to 46 percent there, according to a WSCO-TV poll taken Oct. 6-7 with a sampling error of 4.5 percentage points. In Georgia, McCain led Obama 49-46 percent, according to an Oct. 9 Insider Advantage/Poll Position survey of 531 likely voters with a sampling error of 4 percentage points.

Solid Leads

Each candidate still has solid leads in states that traditionally go for his party. A Survey USA poll in Alabama taken Oct. 8-9 showed McCain, 72, an Arizona senator, leading 62 percent to 35 percent among 697 likely and actual voters.

In Oregon, Obama leads McCain by 54 percent to 43 percent in a Rasmussen survey of 700 likely voters taken on Oct. 9 with a margin of error of 4 percentage points. In the previous poll on Sept. 15, Obama led 51-47.

An Oct. 6 Rasmussen poll in Vermont gave Obama a lead of 65 percent to 32 percent for McCain.

Obama picked up some support from editorial boards in major battleground states this weekend, winning the endorsements of the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in Missouri, the Dayton Daily News in Ohio and the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette in Pennsylvania.

The candidates don't have any major public events today. McCain is in the Washington area, while Obama flew to Ohio, where he will spend time preparing for the final presidential debate Oct. 15.

This afternoon Obama knocked on doors in a neighborhood in Holland, Ohio, near Toledo, before he was surrounded by crowds on the street. Several times the candidate reminded well wishers that early voting was available in Ohio and was rewarded by hearing that some in the neighborhood had already gone to the polls.

To contact the reporter on this story: James Rowley at jarowley@bloomberg.net; Kristin Jensen in Philadelphia at kjensen@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 12, 2008 16:57 EDT

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