By Jeff Bliss and William Varner
Oct. 15 (Bloomberg) -- The United Nations Security Council resolution punishing North Korea for a suspected nuclear test will only be effective if the Bush administration backs it with negotiations to end the weapons program, some national-security analysts said.
Stephen Bosworth, a former U.S. ambassador to South Korea under President Bill Clinton, said the administration should be congratulated for quickly unifying world opinion against the Oct. 9 test. Yet sanctions alone won't be enough to pressure a government that already is economically and diplomatically isolated, he said.
The resolution is ``an admirable demonstration of international sentiment against what the North Koreans have done,'' said Bosworth, now dean of the Fletcher School of Law and Diplomacy at Tufts University in Medford, Massachusetts. ``Will it change North Korea's behavior? Very unlikely.''
The resolution, adopted 15-0 yesterday, bans the sale or transfer of missiles, warships, tanks, attack helicopters and combat aircraft, as well as missile- and nuclear-related goods to the North Korean government. It calls for UN member nations to conduct ``inspection of cargo'' going to or from North Korea.
President George W. Bush must overrule those in the administration who are reluctant to talk directly with the North Koreans, said Joseph Cirincione, a senior vice president for national security at the Center for American Progress in Washington.
`Important Prods'
The sanctions ``can be very important prods that bring North Korea back to the negotiating table,'' he said. ``It will be important for the U.S. to be there ready to negotiate.''
Those talks could be conducted within the multilateral discussions involving North Korea's neighbors -- Russia, China, South Korea and Japan -- on which the Bush administration has insisted, Cirincione said.
John Tkacik, a former U.S. diplomat in China, said the UN resolution may force the North Koreans back into those talks. If it fails to do so, the crisis might ``persist indefinitely,'' he said.
``The North Koreans are finding themselves friendless in the world,'' said Tkacik, now a senior fellow at the Heritage Foundation, a Washington-based research organization. ``Their strategy of defiance is not really working, especially with China and Russia signing into this agreement. This is going to put the squeeze on North Korea even harder.''
The latest diplomatic crisis on the Korean peninsula was touched off by North Korean claims that it had conducted an underground nuclear test in the country's mountainous northeastern region.
Radioactivity
The U.S. notified South Korea yesterday that it had detected evidence of radioactivity near the site where North Korea said it conducted the nuclear test. U.S. intelligence officials have said they haven't come to a definitive conclusion about whether a nuclear bomb was exploded.
Bush said the resolution sends a ``clear message'' to North Korean leader Kim Jong-Il that he should cease developing nuclear weapons in exchange for help in reviving his country's destroyed economy.
``This action by the United Nations, which was swift and tough, says that we are united in our determination to see to it that the Korea peninsula is nuclear-weapon-free,'' Bush said at the White House.
Japanese Reaction
Japan's Foreign Minister Taro Aso welcomed the resolution, calling it ``a big step forward,'' while South Korea's Foreign Ministry vowed to support the move ``in a good faith.''
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe also told reporters today his government is considering additional sanctions, Kyodo News reported. Chinese Ambassador Wang Guangya voiced caution after the vote, urging countries concerned to be ``prudent and responsible'' in cargo inspections involving the North.
Kyodo separately reported that Shoichi Nakagawa, policy chief of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, said Japan needs to debate the possibility of arming itself with nuclear weapons. The nation's constitution doesn't prohibit nuclear arms and discussion on the topic is necessary, Kyodo cited Nakagawa as saying.
Nakagawa's remarks expressed only his personal opinion, and there is no uniform view within the LDP, said a man who answered the telephone at the party's headquarters, without identifying himself.
North Korean Response
North Korea, formally known as the Democratic People's Republic of Korea, ``totally rejects'' the resolution, Ambassador Pak Gil Yon said yesterday. ``If the U.S. increases pressure on the DPRK, persistently, the DPRK will continue to take physical countermeasures, considering it as a declaration of war.''
Pak yesterday walked out of the Security Council chamber when South Korea's envoy began to speak, an action that Bolton compared with Soviet leader Nikita Khrushchev pounding his shoe on a desk in the General Assembly in 1960. Bolton suggested that the UN should consider expelling North Korea.
The diplomatic atmosphere is so charged that a mediator such as a high-ranking Chinese official or new UN Secretary- General Ban Ki Moon will be needed to persuade countries to resume negotiations, Cirincione said.
Different Interpretations
Some of the resolution's language is open to interpretation, showing the perils of using the UN to stop nuclear proliferation, said Lee Feinstein, a senior fellow for U.S. foreign policy and international law at the Council on Foreign Relations in Washington.
The final text says nations are only ``called upon'' to inspect cargo coming from or bound for North Korea ``as necessary.''
While Bolton said nations are legally bound to follow through on the provision, Chinese Ambassador Wang said his country doesn't approve of the inspections.
``Even when you get unanimity, you have members like China instantly repudiating key provisions of the resolution they just approved,'' Feinstein said.
The resolution condemns North Korea's test, says that its nuclear program must be verifiably eliminated and demands that it not conduct any more tests and adhere to the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty.
Freezing Assets
The measure also establishes a Security Council committee to identify people whose financial assets will be frozen because they contributed to North Korea's nuclear and ballistic missile programs. Foreign travel by the designated people would be banned.
Exceptions were made for delivery of humanitarian aid to North Korea.
Adoption of the text comes three months after the Security Council adopted a resolution barring North Korea from acquiring or selling missile technology. That measure was in response to North Korea's July 5 test of seven ballistic missiles.
Whatever the U.S. and its allies decide is their next move, they must act soon, Cirincione said. ``The more they test, the harder it is for them to stop,'' he said.
To contact the reporter on this story: Jeff Bliss in Washington at jbliss@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: October 15, 2006 11:50 EDT
HOME
