By Henry Goldman
Dec. 11 (Bloomberg) -- New York City will lose 170,000 jobs between July 2008 and December 2010, and Wall Street bonuses will decline at least 50 percent this year to the lowest levels since 2002, the state and city comptrollers said today.
Wall Street’s losses, the credit meltdown and the national recession will contribute to city tax revenue falling 4.3 percent in the fiscal year that began July 1, city Comptroller William Thompson said in a report to be released Dec. 15.
“The impact of this crisis will have a lasting effect on the city’s fiscal condition for years to come,” said Thompson, a 2009 candidate for mayor. “The toll taken by the financial industry makes this one of the grimmest economic periods for the city in many years.”
Thompson’s estimate that the city would shed 170,000 jobs represents an increase from an Oct. 15 report that estimated 165,000 jobs lost.
Thompson, 55, was joined by state Comptroller Thomas DiNapoli to assess Wall Street’s impact on the state and city economy at an event sponsored by the Business and Labor Coalition of New York, five days before Governor David Paterson’s Dec. 16 presentation of a proposed budget covering 2009 and 2010.
Education, Health
State officials have predicted a $47 billion budget gap over the next four years, including $1.75 billion for the year ending March 31, and $13.3 billion in the next fiscal year.
“Truly, everything is on the table,” DiNapoli said. “Education and health care, they will not be spared.”
The gaps are widening as economic problems deepen. Business tax revenue this year will probably fall about 7 percent from last year, DiNapoli said.
Although state income tax revenue this year will increase 0.7 percent, last year it grew 5.7 percent, and next year officials project a decrease of at least 3.5 percent, DiNapoli said. Reduced Wall Street bonuses account for a significant portion of lost income-tax receipts, he said.
Wall Street bonuses totaled about $28.7 billion in 2007. This year’s estimate of about $14 billion would make it the lowest since 2002’s $10.8 billion, said Michael Loughran, a spokesman for the city Comptroller’s office.
“While it may be appropriate for some top executives to say they are foregoing their bonuses,” DiNapoli said, “that bonus pool, and we think it will shrunk by as much as 50 percent, that is also going to contribute to a significant loss for the state.”
Jobs Lost
The impact of Wall Street’s difficulties will spread throughout the economy, DiNapoli said.
“In the good times we like to brag that for every Wall Street job we see two additional jobs created in New York City, and another job or job-and-a-half created in the downstate suburbs, so we see the reverse happening as well,” DiNapoli said.
State government will feel the impact of Wall Street’s problems more than the city because the financial industry has historically accounted for about 20 percent of the state’s revenue, compared with about 12 percent for the city, and because the state failed to plan for the slump, as the city did, DiNapoli said.
“This is where the city is in stronger shape than the state,” DiNapoli said. “In the good times, we weren’t smart about paying down some of our debt, building our reserves. That’s something the city did very effectively in past years. So we come into this downturn from a state budget perspective in a weakened position.”
To contact the reporter on this story: Henry Goldman in New York City Hall at hgoldman@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: December 11, 2008 15:41 EST
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