Oct. 30 (Bloomberg) -- Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak’s son, Gamal, has in the past few weeks traveled to the south to promise farmland to minorities, held conferences with youths and set up a Facebook page where supporters praise him.

The ruling National Democratic Party opens its annual three-day congress today and the focus will be on signs that Gamal might succeed his 81-year-old father, whose term expires in 2011. For the past seven years, the gathering has showcased Gamal, who chaired panel discussions and headlined press conferences, an indication of his rising political star.

“The NDP doesn’t have to do anything else to set up Gamal Mubarak as a candidate,” Hala Mustafa, editor of the Cairo political journal Democracy, said in a telephone interview. “For the moment, no one can see any real alternatives.”

Hosni Mubarak has ruled Egypt, the Middle East’s most populous country and a U.S. ally, for 28 years. He has named no vice president. Speculation over who will succeed him intensified after 2004, when he fainted while speaking to parliament.

People “will definitely scrutinize the congress for any signs of an official or unofficial endorsement of Gamal Mubarak as the next presidential candidate,” said Ania Thiemann, senior analyst at the Economist Intelligence Unit in London.

Gamal Mubarak, 46, has attracted support from people pushing for economic change and opposition from pro-democracy activists. They oppose dynastic succession and say the country’s economic boom has swelled the pockets of the rich, while the poor were left to struggle with an average inflation of 18.3 percent in 2008.

Rising Growth

Economic growth accelerated to 7.2 percent in the fiscal year that ended in June 2008 from 4.2 percent in 2003, under a Cabinet which includes close allies to the younger Mubarak. The global financial crisis reduced growth to 4.7 percent in the fiscal year that ended in June.

Gamal in 2002 took charge of the NDP’s policies committee, which makes recommendations to the government, mostly on the economy. At the 2007 NDP conference Hosni Mubarak named Gamal to a new Supreme Council of the party. The decision made it possible for him to run for president; under constitutional rules, candidates must hold a leadership position in an established party to run.

The 2011 presidential election would follow Egypt’s first multicandidate vote in 2005, which Hosni Mubarak swept with 88.6 percent of the vote. He had been elected four times before that in referendums in which he was the sole candidate.

Infrastructure Spending

In a sign of the younger Mubarak’s growing authority, Gamal on Oct. 19 said the government will seek parliament’s endorsement to spend an additional $1.8 billion on infrastructure.

“There is little doubt that he has had a big influence in swinging the mood in favor of more liberalization and broader economic reforms,” Thiemann said. Investors “who know Egypt well are aware of the role played by Gamal.”

The younger Mubarak, a former investment banker with Bank of America Corp. in London, has made several appearances at high-profile events, including the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland.

“The foreign investor community sees him as a positive window of change when it comes to economic policymaking,” said John Sfakianakis, chief economist at Banque Saudi Fransi in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia. Investors “do see him as a safe bet” because he “is from within the system.”

‘Republic Not a Kingdom’

Democracy activist and former newspaper publisher Hisham Kassem says that a top soldier and not Gamal is likely to succeed Hosni Mubarak in line with Egypt’s history since the 1952 coup that ended the country’s monarchy. “This is a waste of time” because Gamal is “not going to make it,” he said in a telephone interview. He did not name any possible military contenders.

Ayman Nour, a candidate in 2005 presidential elections, has organized a stop-Gamal movement at his office in central Cairo. “Our constitution is for a republic, not a kingdom,” Nour told opposition groups who gathered in his office on Oct. 14.

Nour was released from jail earlier this year after being found guilty after the 2005 parliamentary election on charges of fraud that Human Rights Watch, a New York-based watchdog group, said were “trumped up.”

After that election, the success of the banned Muslim Brotherhood set off a rollback of freedoms by Mubarak. Dissident judges were disbarred, newspaper editors prosecuted, and street demonstrations suppressed. New rules were put in place to limit competition in future presidential votes.

A Familiar Face

Amre Moussa, head of the 22-member Arab League and a former foreign minister, created a stir when, in an interview with Al- Shorouk newspaper this month, he left open the possibility that he may run for president.

Under the current government of Prime Minister Ahmed Nazif, Egypt has overhauled its economic policies, selling off state assets and reducing income tax. Foreign direct investment rose to more than $13 billion by June 2008 from $509 million in 2001, according to the Investment Ministry.

“It may be a case of people preferring Gamal because at least they think they know what they will get, rather than some unknown character, who may introduce completely unexpected policies,” Thiemann said in an e-mail.

To contact the reporter on this story: Alaa Shahine in Cairo at asalha@bloomberg.net; Daniel Williams in Cairo at dwilliams41@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: October 29, 2009 18:04 EDT