Oct. 1 (Bloomberg) -- Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC probably lost U.S. market share last month as consumers spurned their pickups and sport-utility vehicles in favor of fuel- efficient cars made by Honda Motor Co.

Sales at Ford may have plunged 15 percent from a year earlier while Chrysler's fell 5.9 percent, according to the average estimates of seven analysts in a Bloomberg survey. Honda sales probably rose 9 percent while General Motors Corp.'s gained 1 percent, helped by discounts, analysts said.

Light trucks such as F-Series pickups account for 67 percent of Ford's sales, and Chrysler gets 75 percent of its sales from the Dodge Ram and similar vehicles, the most of any major automaker. Gasoline prices that have stayed near $3 a gallon damped demand for those models and spurred sales of Honda's fuel- efficient CR-V small SUV, Fit subcompact car and new Accord.

``Honda has a reputation for reliability and fuel economy and that's broadly appealing,'' Tom Libby, an analyst at marketing-research firm J.D. Power & Associates in Westlake Village, California, said in an interview.

Honda's gain enabled the Japanese automaker to narrow the gap between it and Chrysler, No. 4 in U.S. sales. ``The Chrysler and Dodge brands struggle in the midsize segment, which is where Honda does very well,'' Libby said.

Less Than Half

Automakers report September sales tomorrow. The industrywide annualized sales rate probably fell to 15.9 million last month, according to eight analysts and nine economists surveyed by Bloomberg. The September 2006 rate was 16.6 million.

Ford and GM have lost market share this year August, while Chrysler's was unchanged. In July, the U.S.-based automakers for the first time held less than 50 percent of their home market, and Toyota Motor Corp., Japan's biggest automaker, passed Ford in August to become No. 2 behind GM.

Last month had 25 selling days, one fewer than September 2006. The analysts' estimates for GM, Ford and Chrysler adjust for the difference. Bloomberg and some automakers use unadjusted percentage comparisons, which would be about 4 points lower.

Tokyo-based Honda may say sales rose 9 percent last month, ``driven by the clearance of its 2007 Accord and a strong start for the 2008 model,'' Brian Johnson, a Lehman Brothers analyst based in Chicago, said in a Sept. 27 note. Jairam Nathan, a Banc of America analyst in New York, estimated a similar gain for Honda.

Chrysler, GM

Chrysler's sales of light trucks may have fallen 11 percent in September from a year earlier and its total decline probably was about 6 percent, said Chris Ceraso, a Credit Suisse analyst based in New York, in a Sept. 26 note.

The Auburn Hills, Michigan-based automaker's sales dropped 6.1 percent in August, in its first report after Cerberus Capital Management bought an 80.1 percent stake in the company from DaimlerChrysler AG.

GM's increase in incentives, including $1,000 discounts on many 2007 models and no-interest loans on large pickups, may have helped boost its September sales 3 percent from a year earlier, Nathan said in a Sept. 27 note.

Detroit-based GM is trying to follow on its surprise 6.1 percent increase in August, led by large pickups such as the Chevrolet Silverado and GMC Sierra. The company last week reached a contract agreement with the United Auto Workers union after a two-day strike.

Ford, Toyota

Ford may say September sales fell 13 percent as it continues to reduce less-profitable deliveries to rental-car companies, Johnson said. A decline would be the Dearborn, Michigan-based company's 11th straight. In August, Ford's sales fell 14 percent.

The automaker is having success with its so-called crossover sport-utility vehicles such as the Edge that combine car and truck features, ``but not enough to offset the impact of sharp declines in Ford's traditional trucks,'' Johnson said.

Ford's chief sales analyst, George Pipas, said in an e-mail that ``we appear to be on track to achieve our total market share objective'' of 14 percent to 15 percent in the U.S. for the Ford, Mercury and Lincoln brands. Through August, the share for those brands was 15.1 percent, a drop from 16.8 percent a year earlier.

Toyota may say its September sales fell 9.8 percent to 201,044, according to Ward's Automotive Reports. The monthly drop would be the third in a row for the Toyota City, Japan-based automaker.

Shares, Bonds

GM shares fell 65 cents to $36.05 at 4:04 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, and Ford dropped 26 cents to $8.23. Toyota's American depositary receipts increased $1.89 to $118.75 and Honda's ADRs rose 32 cents to $33.68.

GM's 8.375 percent note due July 2033 gained 0.5 cent to 89.13 cents on the dollar, yielding 9.51 percent, according to Trace, the NASD's bond-price reporting service. Ford's 7.45 percent note due July 2031 dropped 0.5 cent to 79.75 cents on the dollar, yielding 9.6 percent, according to Trace.

Credit-default swaps on GM debt increased 6 basis points to 500 basis points, according to CMA Datavision in London. Ford's added 4 basis points to 600 basis points.

The contracts are designed to protect bondholders against default. An increase in the price indicates a decline in the perception of a company's credit quality.

The following table provides estimates for car and light- truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are percentage changes from September 2006. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The SAAR average is based on forecasts from eight analysts and a survey of nine economists. The analysts' estimates are based on daily selling rates and are adjusted to account for last month having 25 selling days, one fewer than September 2006.

Analyst                   GM     Ford     Chrysler    SAAR

Brian Johnson           5.3%   -12.8%     -5.8%       16.1
 (Lehman Brothers)
Chris Ceraso              2%*    -15%*      -6%*      15.7*
 (Credit Suisse)
Himanshu Patel          0.0%     -11%       -6%       15.9
 (JPMorgan)
Jesse Toprak            0.8%   -14.4%     -6.7%        N/A
 (Edmunds.com)
Jairam Nathan             3%     -18%       -7%       15.9
 (Banc of America)
Rod Lache               -11%     -16%       -4%       15.2
 (Deutsche Bank)
Paul Ballew              N/A      N/A       N/A       16.0
 (General Motors)
George Magliano          N/A      N/A       N/A       16.1
 (Global Insight)
John Sousanis           6.8%      N/A       N/A       16.1
 (Ward's Automotive)

Bloomberg Economists     N/A      N/A       N/A       15.9
(average estimate)

AVERAGE:                  1%   -14.5%     -5.9%       15.9

*Estimate presented as a range. Figure shown here is an average
of the range, rounded to the nearest tenth where appropriate.

To contact the reporter on this story: Greg Bensinger in Southfield, Michigan, at gbensinger1@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: October 1, 2007 16:16 EDT