By Nipa Piboontanasawat
Sept. 11 (Bloomberg) -- China's inflation rate surged to a 10-year high and the trade surplus widened, adding pressure on the central bank to raise borrowing costs for a fifth time since March.
Consumer prices rose 6.5 percent in August from a year earlier after gaining 5.6 percent in July, the statistics bureau said today. The trade gap widened 33 percent to $24.97 billion, the second-highest monthly total.
Food costs drove the increase in inflation, jumping 18.2 percent after a shortage of pigs pushed up meat and poultry prices. The government is trying to stop the money from record exports stoking wider price gains and property and stock bubbles in the world's fastest-growing major economy.
``Inflation expectations have begun to rise and the government should do something significant like raising interest rates by 54 basis points to signal they are serious,'' said Jim Walker, chief economist at CLSA Asia-Pacific Markets in Hong Kong. ``Otherwise, the stock and property bubbles will get bigger and eventually crash.''
China's currency, the yuan, was little changed at 7.5228 against the dollar as of 12:40 p.m. in Shanghai, from yesterday's 7.5214, the strongest close since a fixed exchange rate was scrapped in July 2005. The benchmark CSI 300 Index of stocks fell 0.4 percent.
Central Bank Target
The yield on the 10-year treasury rose 7 basis points to 4.35 percent, according to the China Interbank Market. The price of the security due June 2017 was 100.4 yuan.
Inflation topped the 5.9 percent median estimate of 24 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The trade surplus compared with an estimate of $25.9 billion.
The central bank raised the benchmark one-year interest rate by 0.18 percentage point to a nine-year high of 7.02 percent last month. It's also sold bills and ordered lenders to set aside a larger proportion of deposits seven times this year to soak up cash.
The world's fourth-biggest economy expanded 11.9 percent in the second quarter, the largest increase in more than 12 years.
Exports rose 22.7 percent in August from a year earlier and imports gained 20.1 percent. The $15 billion trade surplus with the U.S. for the month may exacerbate friction over product safety and lawmakers' claims the yuan is undervalued.
Inflation has exceeded the central bank's annual target of 3 percent for four straight months. The average rate for the first eight months was 3.9 percent.
Property, Stocks
Consumer-price gains have outpaced returns on bank deposits, encouraging households to switch money to property and stocks. The benchmark one-year deposit rate is 3.6 percent.
The CSI 300 has climbed more than 160 percent this year amid government warnings of a bubble. In July, housing prices jumped 7.5 percent in 70 major cities.
Meat and poultry prices soared 49 percent in August after climbing 45.2 percent in July. Vegetable costs rose 22.5 percent after gaining 18.7 percent. The increase in non-food inflation stayed at 0.9 percent.
In the southern factory town of Tanzhou, food vendors have put up signs saying ``Higher Inflation'' on their street stalls to explain the prices.
``Everything costs more -- chili, cooking oil and meat,'' said Luo Aiqun, a 42-year-old woman selling spicy meat, vegetables and noodles. ``My customers complain -- but I have no choice.'' Luo charges 4.5 yuan (60 cents) for a meal, up from 4 yuan last month, she said.
China is the world's biggest producer and consumer of pork. Prices have soared because of a pig shortage linked to disease and increased feed costs. Food accounts for a third of the consumer price index and meat for 7 percent.
Pork Imports
The government has added subsidies for farmers this year and arranged to import pork. Smithfield Foods Inc., the Smithfield, Virginia-based company that's the world's biggest hog and pork producer, agreed last month to export 60 million pounds of meat to China.
``Replenishing the hog supply will take time,'' said Carl Weinberg, chief economist at High Frequency Economics in New York. ``This is a political problem that is likely to surface as a criticism of the government at the National Congress.''
Soaring consumer prices were a factor in protests that led to the Tiananmen Square crackdown in 1989. China's leaders are competing for jobs before the Communist Party's 17th National Congress beginning Oct. 15.
To contact the reporter on this story: Nipa Piboontanasawat in Hong Kong at npiboontanas@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: September 11, 2007 01:43 EDT
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