By Brian Faler
Jan. 20 (Bloomberg) -- The government wouldn’t be able to spend at least one-fourth of a proposed $825 billion economic stimulus plan until after 2010, according to a new report that suggests it may take longer than expected to boost the economy.
A Congressional Budget Office analysis of President Barack Obama’s plan found that most of the approximately $355 billion in proposed discretionary spending on highways, renewable energy and other initiatives wouldn’t be spent before 2011. The government would spend about $26 billion of the money this year and $110 billion more next year, the report said.
About $103 billion would be spent in 2011, while $53 billion would be spent in 2012 and $63 billion between 2013 and 2019, the report said. Republicans said the analysis showed that the plan, unveiled last week by House Democrats, won’t get money into the economy quickly enough.
“We have serious concerns that the bulk of this spending won’t have an immediate or short-term positive effect on the economic crisis,” said Jennifer Hing, a spokeswoman for Representative Jerry Lewis of California, the top Republican on the House Appropriations Committee. “This is especially troubling given the massive size of the package and the enormous burden of debt it is placing on the taxpayers.”
Leading Economists’ Advice
A spokesman for House Speaker Nancy Pelosi defended the plan, saying it was “crafted based on the advice of some of our nation’s leading economists.” Spokesman Nadeam Elshami said the CBO report did not examine the tax and mandatory-spending provisions in the plan, which he said could be more quickly enacted.
“These provisions will go out quickly to give the economy a jolt while others will represent down payments on crucial priorities for our economic future -- investments in clean energy, health care, education and repairing our nation’s infrastructure,” Elshami said.
The stimulus plan is aimed at helping lift the economy out of recession through tax cuts for families and businesses and $550 billion in new spending on programs including expanded unemployment benefits, aid to state governments and increased funding for scientific research.
The CBO report analyzed only the discretionary section of the bill, omitting the $275 billion in proposed tax cuts and approximately $195 billion in mandatory spending increases.
The analysis suggests that much of the stimulus may not come until after the economy has begun to recover. The CBO has previously said it expected a “slow” recovery to begin later this year and that the economy will expand by a “modest” 1.5 percent in 2010.
Highway Construction
The report said less than $5 billion of the $30 billion set aside for highway spending would be spent within the next two years. About $2.6 billion of $18.5 billion for renewable energy programs would be spent by then. About $907 million of a $6 billion plan to expand broadband access in rural and other underserved areas would be spent by 2011, CBO said.
The timing of spending on different programs would vary because some, such as building a highway or revamping the nation’s electrical grid, take longer to implement than others, such as providing bigger unemployment assistance checks.
House Appropriations Committee Chairman David Obey, a Wisconsin Democrat, said last week that while lawmakers looked for programs that could be implemented quickly, they didn’t focus exclusively on “shovel-ready” projects because they also wanted the stimulus plan to address longer-term problems.
To contact the reporter on this story: Brian Faler in Washington at bfaler@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: January 20, 2009 16:55 EST
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