Bloomberg Anywhere Bloomberg Professional About Bloomberg


 
Asian Currencies Climb on Fund Inflows, Global Dollar Weakness

By Kim Kyoungwha

May 21 (Bloomberg) -- Asian currencies rose, led by the Taiwan dollar and Malaysia’s ringgit, as reports signaled the outlook for regional exports and inflows of foreign exchange is improving.

Taiwan’s dollar climbed to a five-month high as the island’s current account swelled to a record surplus. The ringgit advanced to the strongest level in a week after gross domestic product in Singapore, Malaysia’s biggest trading partner, shrank less than initially estimated last quarter. The ICE Dollar Index fell to its lowest level this year as the Federal Reserve said it may increase asset purchases, boosting supply of the currency.

“The global economy has seen the worst and therefore Asian currencies are gaining momentum given the dependence on trade,” said Thomas Harr, a senior currency strategist with Standard Chartered Plc in Singapore. “The dollar is falling off a cliff as global economic expectations are stabilizing.”

Taiwan’s currency rose 0.4 percent to NT$32.738 per dollar as of 4 p.m. in Taipei, according to Taipei Forex Inc. It touched NT$32.606, the strongest since Dec. 22. The ringgit gained 0.5 percent to 3.5185, and reached 3.5180, the highest level since May 13.

The Dollar Index, which tracks the greenback against the euro, yen, British pound, Canadian dollar, Swiss franc and Swedish krona, dropped for a fourth day to 81.03. It declined to the year’s low of 80.91 yesterday.

‘Easing Off’

Singapore’s GDP fell an annualized 14.6 percent last quarter from the previous three months, after shrinking 16.4 percent between October and December, the trade ministry said in a statement today. The first-quarter contraction was better than an April 14 estimate of a 19.7 percent drop.

“The pressure on Asian economies is easing off and commodity prices are signaling improving demand and confidence,” said Yeah Kim Leng, chief economist in Kuala Lumpur at RAM Holdings Bhd., Malaysia’s biggest ratings company. “Asian currencies should see better days ahead, especially if the U.S. is expanding by printing more money.”

The dollar weakened against 13 of the world’s 16 major currencies on concern the U.S. central bank will supply more of the currency to help end a recession in the world’s biggest economy.

The yen rose to 94.63 per dollar in Tokyo after touching 94.29, the highest level since March 20, from 94.88 yesterday in New York. The euro traded at $1.3818 from $1.3780 yesterday, when it reached $1.3830, the strongest level since Jan. 5.

‘Overweight’ Emerging Markets

The MSCI Asia Pacific Index of regional shares and the MSCI Emerging-Markets Index fell today following yesterday’s highest closing levels since October.

“One of the main developments this week has been the start of ‘weak dollar trend’ thinking,” said Mirza Baig, a Singapore- based foreign-exchange strategist with Deutsche Bank AG, the world’s biggest currency trader. “The momentum and flows are all very favorable for now” for Asian currencies.

A net 46 percent of the 220 fund managers surveyed by Merrill Lynch & Co. in May said they were “overweight” emerging-market equities, up from 4 percent two months ago and the highest level since mid-2007.

South Korea’s won rose as overseas investors bought more of the nation’s shares than they sold for a fifth day, exchange data showed. The currency climbed 0.2 percent to 1,248.67, taking gains in the past three months to 21 percent, Asia’s best performance.

Taiwan Trade

Taiwan’s dollar climbed for a third day after the island’s current-account surplus widened to $13 billion in the first quarter as imports plunged, according to a report yesterday after local markets closed. Investors abroad bought more Taiwan shares than they sold for a second day, exchange data shows.

“It would make sense for the Taiwanese dollar to strengthen on the current-account data,” said Dariusz Kowalczyk, a strategist with SJS Markets Ltd. in Hong Kong. “I don’t really see much upside from here. The central bank wouldn’t want the currency to strengthen at this point. They’d prefer to see a recovery in exports.”

Taiwan’s dollar is likely to be one of Asia’s “top- performing” currencies in the second half of this year, thanks in part to improving ties with China, according to Societe Generale SA. Investors should buy the currency against the ringgit to profit from this, Patrick Bennett, a Hong Kong-based currency and rates strategist at Societe, wrote in a note today.

Elsewhere, the Philippine peso rose 0.1 percent to 47.23 per dollar and the Thai baht added 0.2 percent to 34.39. Singapore’s dollar climbed 0.4 percent to $1.4557 and China’s yuan was little changed at 6.8241. Indonesia’s markets are closed for a public holiday.

To contact the reporters on this story: Kim Kyoungwha in Beijing at kkim19@bloomberg.net;

Last Updated: May 21, 2009 04:29 EDT

Sponsored links