By Andrea Rothman and Massoud A. Derhally
Nov. 14 (Bloomberg) -- Airbus SAS and Boeing Co., the world's two largest planemakers, said this year will mark the peak in orders, beating a record set in 2005, and that sales will dwindle in the next 12 months.
Airbus and Boeing won contracts worth almost $70 billion at the Dubai Air Show over the past four days. Airbus sold 297 jetliners and Boeing 155, putting the pair on course to exceed 2005's 2,057 orders. The combined tally may be about 800 to 1,000 next year, Airbus sales chief John Leahy said in an interview at the show, marking a return to ``normal trend levels.''
The contracts are a boost for Toulouse, France-based Airbus as it struggles to end losses following a $6.8 billion charge from the A380 superjumbo and delays to its new A350 long-haul plane. Both companies have benefited from a jump in sales to Asia and the Persian Gulf, where oil-rich states are using their wealth to establish tourist and travel hubs. While Middle Eastern countries account for 10 percent of Airbus's backlog, they have contributed 30 percent of orders this year.
``We'd been expecting a few major orders at the show but the big surprise was the very strong performance of Airbus and the A350,'' said Yan Derocles, an analyst at Oddo Securities in Paris with a ``reduce'' rating on Airbus parent European Aeronautic, Defence & Space Co. Slowing economic growth next year may mean some airlines seek to reverse orders, he said.
EADS shares rose 31 cents, or 1.4 percent, to 23.26 euros. The stock has added 4.4 percent this week over the course of the Dubai show. Chicago-based Boeing has lost 1.1 percent.
Emirates Splashes Out
Dubai-based Emirates, the biggest Arab airline, was the week's top spender, ordering 70 A350s and 11 double-deck A380s with a combined list price of $20.2 billion, plus 12 Boeing 777s valued at $3.2 billion.
``This is one of the growth markets of the world,'' Leahy said in the interview last night. ``There are about 2.5 billion people within five hours of here. And if you fly 8,000 nautical miles, the range of our A350, you get to 95 percent of the world's population. This is becoming a major hub.''
Leahy, also Airbus's chief operating officer, has called a sharp drop in orders before without one transpiring. In February 2006 he said industry-wide bookings might fall 61 percent that year to 800. The total actually slid 12 percent.
Added to the 1,021 orders won by Airbus through October, the contracts from Dubai mean the company has already beaten its record of 1,111 set in 2005. Boeing orders announced at the show include some counted in the 956 accrued as of Nov. 6. The U.S. company's record is 1,226 orders, set in 1989.
Major Event
Scott Carson, chief executive of Boeing's commercial airplane group, said demand from the Persian Gulf has established Dubai as a show to rank alongside Paris and Farnborough in the U.K.
``We all thought 2005 was a once-in-a-lifetime experience,'' Carson said in an interview. ``All of us walked into 2007 believing we'd have a more moderate year but it's been on pace with what we've seen in the last two. If you asked us to forecast, we'd probably say next year will be more moderate.''
Airbus won 163 firm orders in Dubai with a value of almost $30 billion at list prices, plus commitments for a further 134 planes worth about $15 billion. Those commitments ``are rock solid with money down and will be turned into full purchase contracts within 30 days,'' Leahy said.
Airbus Headaches
Airbus is cutting 10,000 jobs after it had a loss of 572 million euros (839 million) last year before interest and tax, compared with earnings of $3.81 billion at Boeing, even after building 36 more aircraft. Wiring problems put the A380 two years behind schedule, the A400M military-transport is running a year late, prompting a 1.1 billion-euro charge, and the A350 was redesigned five times to win airline approval, pushing deliveries five years behind Boeing's rival 787 Dreamliner.
The Dreamliner has since encountered production glitches of its own and is due at the end of 2008, six months late.
``Given that Boeing is starting to have problems with the 787 and the orders Airbus is now getting for the A350, it seems likely that Airbus is now able to get very good pricing for the plane, with less discounting than earlier,'' Derocles said.
This week's gains have pared the decline in EADS shares this year to 11 percent, giving a market value of 18.9 billion euros ($28 billion). Boeing has added 4.9 percent and is valued at $72.2 billion.
Dubai Aerospace Enterprise announced 200 purchases in Dubai, valued at $27.2 billion, as it establishes a leasing arm. Qatar Airways placed $6.1 billion of orders and Air Arabia some $2.48 billion. Another 12 operators also bought planes.
As high as Dubai's order intake was, it still lags behind the world's two biggest air shows. Airbus alone racked up 425 firm orders and 303 commitments at the Paris event in June, more than twice the total from this week's show.
Betting Big
Middle Eastern airlines may increase their combined fleet by almost two-thirds to 900 aircraft by 2015 from 550 planes in 2006, according to the Arab Air Carriers Organization.
``The region's airlines continue to bet big on themselves,'' said Richard Pinkham, an analyst at the Centre for Asia Pacific Aviation in Singapore. ``It's a gamble, especially for the carriers with smaller local markets which depend on intercontinental transfer traffic. A global economic slowdown could result in a lot of red ink.''
Habib Fekih, Airbus's president for the Middle East, said he's not so concerned, and that the current order boom suggests the trend line may higher than previously.
``People have been saying the same thing for the past three years,'' Fekih said in an interview at the Dubai show. ``The question is, are we going to a new trend? After all, we've had the sub-prime crisis and high oil prices, but airlines are booming. My belief is that orders will come down but maybe they'll be slightly higher than normal.''
To contact the reporters on this story: Andrea Rothman in Dubai at aerothman@bloomberg.net; Massoud A. Derhally in Dubai at mderhally@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: November 14, 2007 12:46 EST
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