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Hurricane Ike Heads for Gulf of Mexico; May Hit Texas (Update1)

By Brian K. Sullivan

Sept. 9 (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Ike, which killed four people in Cuba and more than 170 in Haiti, started to strengthen as it entered the Gulf of Mexico and headed in the direction of Texas, the U.S. government's storm agency said.

The storm was 120 miles (195 kilometers) west of Havana and moving west-northwest at 9 mph at 11 p.m. Miami time, according to the U.S. National Hurricane Center. The U.S. agency said the storm was starting to strengthen and may become a ``major hurricane.''

Ike's winds strengthened to 80 miles per hour, the center said, and may increase in speed to 111 mph or higher in the central Gulf. The hurricane is forecast to bypass New Orleans and the offshore Louisiana oil and natural gas fields and strike the Texas coast on Sept. 13.

There's ``a significant chance that Ike will be the worst hurricane to hit Texas in 40 years,'' Jeff Masters, the director of meteorology at private forecaster Weather Underground Inc., said. ``I am giving it a 50 percent chance of being a major hurricane at landfall.''

A Category 3 storm has winds between 111 to 130 mph on the five-step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity. The hurricane made landfall in eastern Cuba as a Category 3 storm, crossing the country before moving back into the Caribbean and making landfall in western Cuba today as a Category 1 storm.

``It won't take much for Hurricane Ike to intensify,'' said Thomas Downs, a meteorologist with Weather 2000 Inc. in New York. ``There is the distinct possibility Ike will strengthen much more than National Hurricane Center forecasts.''

Dodging a Bullet

``If this southerly track continues, the major energy complex in and around Houston and Galveston Bay may dodge this bullet as well,'' Jim Rouiller, senior energy meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania, said by e-mail. ``Though Mexican energy production operations may shut down, the track of Ike will probably be too far north to create significant damage.''

Corpus Christi, Texas, which according to five-day NHC projections may be near Ike's landfall, has about 650,000 barrels a day of oil refining capacity, said Mike Wittner, head of oil research at Societe Generale SA in London.

Officials in Corpus Christi, a city of about 277,000 people, are monitoring the storm and reviewing emergency plans, spokesman Ted Nelson said by telephone.

The last time the city had to call for an evacuation was in 2005, when it looked like Hurricane Rita was going to strike. Rita's course took the storm farther north.

Disaster Declaration

Texas Governor Rick Perry issued a disaster declaration yesterday along the coast in preparation for Ike's landfall. As many as 7,500 national guardsmen are on standby for rapid deployment and 1,350 buses are available for evacuations, the governor's office said in a statement today.

Allstate Corp., the largest publicly traded U.S. home insurer, is preparing for Ike's landfall, said George Ruebenson, the head of the Northbrook, Illinois-based company's home and auto units, at a presentation to investors in New York today.

The storm is ``pretty scary,'' Ruebenson said. Estimates for insured losses from Hurricane Gustav, which hit Louisiana as a Category 2 storm on Sept. 1, range from $2 billion to $7 billion, less than the $41.1 billion in industrywide claims resulting from Hurricane Katrina in 2005, the most costly natural disaster in U.S. history.

Cuban authorities evacuated as many as 2 million people, or almost a fifth of its population, as Ike approached, according to Agence France-Presse. Four people were killed and seven injured, the news agency said.

Providing Aid

Cuba may receive as much as 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain in isolated areas, triggering flooding and mudslides, the hurricane center said.

The U.S. government is providing $100,000 in emergency assistance to agencies working in humanitarian relief operations in Cuba in response to Gustav and is considering additional emergency aid in response to Ike, according to a statement from the State Department.

Ike killed 172 people in Haiti, according to Sophie Boutand de la Combe, spokeswoman for the United Nations peacekeeping mission in the country. The World Food Program said today that up to 6 feet (2 meters) of water was still standing in streets of Gonaives where 101 people died and the agency has distributed food to 39,000 Haitians.

Storm Deaths

At least 600 people died as Ike, Hurricane Gustav and two tropical storms either hit the country or passed close by in the past month, AFP said. As many as 600,000 people may need assistance, UN humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes said.

Rigs, refineries and platforms shut down by Gustav stayed closed because of the threat from Ike. The Gulf is home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production.

Energy producers reported that personnel from 44 rigs and 167 production platforms were evacuated, according to the Minerals Management Service. There are about 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.

About 77.5 percent of oil production and 64.8 percent of gas production has been disabled, according to the service.

Crude oil for October delivery fell 56 cents, or 0.5 percent, to $102.70 a barrel at 8:56 a.m. Sydney time on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices have dropped to their lowest since the start of April after reaching a record $147.27 in July.

To contact the reporter on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: September 9, 2008 23:13 EDT

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