By Ken Fireman
Dec. 6 (Bloomberg) -- Robert M. Gates will give the U.S. a new defense secretary who's openly skeptical about the way the Bush administration has handled Iraq and is eager to consider new courses of action.
During his Senate confirmation hearing yesterday, Gates drew several implicit contrasts between himself and outgoing Defense Secretary Donald Rumsfeld -- and made it clear that, unlike Rumsfeld, he will probably be no ally of Vice President Dick Cheney in the administration's inner councils.
Gates, 63, said he didn't think the U.S. was winning in Iraq and disagreed with some of the crucial early decisions made by his predecessor. He repeatedly said that ``all options are on the table,'' although he opposed setting a timetable for withdrawing U.S. forces from Iraq.
Gates even refused to say whether President George W. Bush's 2003 decision to invade Iraq was right. ``That's a judgment that the historians are going to have to make,'' Gates told the Senate Armed Services Committee just hours before it recommended confirmation on a unanimous vote. ``Was the decision to go in right? I think it's too soon to tell. And I think much depends on the outcome in Iraq.''
While that answer -- to a question that Bush routinely answers in the affirmative -- was perhaps the most striking way in which Gates distanced himself from current administration policy on Iraq, it was hardly the only one.
When asked by Senator Carl Levin of Michigan, the senior Democrat on the committee, whether the U.S. was winning the Iraq conflict, Gates replied crisply: ``No, sir.''
In response to questions from other lawmakers, Gates essentially validated many of the key arguments critics have made of the way Bush has handled Iraq.
Insufficient Force
The administration ``clearly'' sent an insufficient number of troops to control Iraq after Saddam Hussein was toppled from power and badly underestimated the real costs of rebuilding Iraq, Gates said.
And the U.S. needlessly made thousands of enemies among ordinary Iraqis right after the invasion by hastily disbanding the Iraqi army and purging Baath Party members from government posts, he said.
Gates also expressed strong reservations about the Bush- Cheney doctrine of pre-emptive war, at least as it might be applied to Iran. Asked if he would support a U.S. attack on Iran as a response to its support for Iraqi insurgents and alleged pursuit of nuclear weapons, Gates said he would advise against it except as ``a last resort'' because of the likely Iranian reaction.
War Unpredictable
``We have seen in Iraq that once war is unleashed it becomes unpredictable, and I think that the consequences of a military conflict with Iran could be quite dramatic,'' Gates said. ``Their capacity to potentially close off the Persian Gulf to all exports of oil, their potential to unleash a significant wave of terror in the Middle East and in Europe and even here in this country, is very real.''
Gates also said he didn't believe that the 2002 congressional resolution authorizing military action in Iraq or one passed the previous year approving force in response to the Sept. 11 attacks would give Bush authority to attack Iran or Syria.
The nominee expressed a willingness to engage those nations' governments diplomatically, while saying the outcome was uncertain. ``In the long run, we are going to have to acknowledge the influence of Iraq's neighbors and potential to make the situation either better or worse in Iraq,'' he said.
Attitude
Lawmakers, especially Democrats who have chafed for years under Rumsfeld's dismissive attitude, could hardly contain their enthusiasm. Levin almost couldn't wait to hold the vote confirming Gates. ``The faster that the president can hear the kind of candor that we heard this morning about the situation in Iraq, the better,'' he said. The full Senate began debate on the nomination today and may confirm Gates today or tomorrow.
Gates's rejection of a withdrawal timetable and skepticism about Iranian and Syrian motives in Iraq were enough to please Republican senators such as Lindsey Graham of South Carolina who say the U.S. should be adding troops to Iraq, not withdrawing.
``He will pursue strategies in Iraq that allow us to come home, but more importantly to come home with victory,'' Graham said.
Anthony Cordesman, a national security analyst at the Center for Strategic and International Studies in Washington, said Gates's testimony was calibrated to meet a political need. ``He was selected because Rumsfeld is seen as a major liability, and anything he said that echoed Rumsfeld would damage the president,'' Cordesman said.
Up to Bush
Yet, even as Democrats warmed to Gates's answers, they repeatedly asked him whether he could bring Bush around to his way of thinking.
``You seem to be a very reasonable man. What leads you to believe that the president of the United States will accept your counsel?'' said Senator Evan Bayh, an Indiana Democrat.
Replied Gates: ``Because he asked me to take the job.''
He acknowledged that it would ultimately be up to Bush whether to adopt a new tack in Iraq. Yet, he said the president told him privately that ``he wanted someone with fresh eyes to look at the situation and make recommendations'' and that Bush ``has indicated a willingness to consider different options.''
Gates portrayed himself as a potentially central figure in an urgent administration review of Iraq policy. He said he planned to receive views from several sources -- the Iraq Study Group that reported its findings today, the armed services chiefs in Washington and military commanders in Iraq -- and synthesize them into a set of recommendations for Bush.
Move Fast
And Gates made it clear that he intended to move fast.
``This process is going to proceed with considerable urgency,'' he told Senator Hillary Clinton, a New York Democrat. ``As soon as I'm sworn in, I intend to actually move very quickly in terms of the consultations with the commanders in the field and with the chiefs and with others in terms of formulating my recommendations.''
Clinton said afterward that while she was encouraged by Gates's ``straightforward and candid'' answers, she was reserving judgment on how effective he would be in changing U.S. policy.
``The proof is what happens when he comes forward with proposals that, for whatever reason, the president is unwilling to consider,'' Clinton said in an interview. ``We won't know how effective he will be in the job until he's actually there and performing.''
To contact the reporter on this story: Ken Fireman at kfireman1@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: December 6, 2006 12:29 EST
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