By Christian Schmollinger and Gavin Evans
May 26 (Bloomberg) -- Crude oil rose for a second day in New York, after reaching a record last week, as militant attacks in Nigeria and declining output in Mexico increased the potential for supply disruptions.
The Movement for the Emancipation of the Niger Delta, Nigeria's main militant group, said it attacked a crude-oil pumping station operated by Royal Dutch Shell Plc. Oil output in Mexico, the third-largest supplier to the U.S., for April fell the most in more than 12 years as flows from its largest field declined, state-owned Petroleos Mexicanos said on May 23.
``People are really responding to longer-term supply issues,'' said John Vautrain, vice president at consultants Purvin & Gertz Inc. in Singapore, in an interview with Bloomberg Television. ``Every time we hear good news about some big new find somewhere you have to counteract that with the news that there are a couple of million barrels a day disappearing from the market every year just because of natural declines.''
Crude oil for July delivery rose as much as $1.08, or 0.8 percent, to $133.27 a barrel in after-hours electronic trading on the New York Mercantile Exchange. It was at $133.11 at 9:44 a.m. in London.
Futures reached a record $135.09 on May 22 after the dollar posted its biggest weekly decline against the euro since March. Prices have doubled from a year ago and surged 20 percent since the start of the month.
$200 Oil
``When you look at oil prices from a demand-supply point of view we see a lot more upside,'' said Gavin Wendt, a senior resources analyst at Fat Prophets Funds Management in Sydney. Prices may breach $150 later this year, he said.
Banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. and Barclays Capital have increased their price forecasts, citing supply constraints. Goldman raised its price for the second half of this year by 32 percent to $141 a barrel. The bank's analyst, Arjun Murti, said oil may rise to between $150 and $200 within two years.
Brent crude oil for July settlement rose as much as $1.01, or 0.8 percent, to $132.58 a barrel in after-hours trading on London's ICE Futures Europe exchange. It was at $132.49 at 9:45 a.m. in London. It rose 0.8 percent to $131.57 on May 23 after reaching a record $135.14 the day before.
MEND attacked a ``major trunk pipeline at Awoba Flow Station'' using armed fighters and detonation engineers at 0100 hours today, the group said in an e-mailed statement.
Shell spokeswoman Caroline Wittgen couldn't immediately be reached for a comment.
MEND Attacks
As much as 164,000 barrels a day of Shell's oil production had been halted by militant attacks this year, including an assault at a pumping station in Bayelsa state in the Niger Delta on May 2. The company lost an average of 156,000 barrels a day of Nigerian output in the first quarter.
``The market is running a bit scared and that's propelling prices higher,'' said Jonathan Barratt, managing director at Commodity Broking Service Ltd. in Sydney in an interview with Bloomberg Television.
Mexico's crude oil production fell 13 percent to 2.767 million barrels a day in April, Mexico City-based Pemex, as the company is known, said on its Web site. Output a year earlier was 3.182 million barrels a day. The decline was the largest since October 1995, when output fell 29 percent.
Output at Cantarell, Pemex's biggest field, fell 33 percent to 1.07 million barrels a day, according to the Energy Ministry. That was the lowest output since March 1996 at the field, which peaked at 2.192 million barrels a day in December 2003 and once accounted for about 60 percent of the company's output.
Exports fell 14 percent to 1.439 million barrels a day. Pemex has said it will cut exports as output falls so that it can refine more of its own oil.
Statoil Resumes
StatoilHydro ASA said it resumed some production at two North Sea platforms yesterday following an oil leak on May 24 that cut daily output by about 138,000 barrels.
StatoilHydro, the Nordic region's largest oil and natural- gas producer, said today it resumed production at the Snorre A and Vigdis platforms following a leak at the Statfjord A rig. Snorre A pumps 75,000 barrels a day and Vigdis has an output of 44,000 barrels a day. The two platforms were rerouted to the Gullfaks system and Snorre A is still at ``reduced capacity.'' Statfjord A pumps about 19,000 barrels of oil a day.
Hedge-fund managers and other large speculators last week reduced their bets on rising oil prices for the first time this month. Net-long positions, the difference between orders to buy and sell the commodity, fell 30 percent to 50,230 contracts at May 20, the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission said.
`Speculative Funds'
``The recent rise in oil prices has been driven by speculative funds,'' Wendt said. ``Over the next couple of weeks we wouldn't be surprised if there was a little bit of profit- taking in oil.''
U.S. gasoline demand peaks June through August as summer vacation travel puts more cars on the road. About 23 percent of Americans shortened or abandoned their weekend travel plans because of high fuel prices, consulting firm Deloitte & Touche said last week.
Floor trading is closed in New York for the Memorial Day today, the first holiday of the summer driving season. London is also closed today for the Spring bank holiday.
Indonesian students took to the streets over the weekend in Jakarta, Surabaya and other large cities to protest an increase in fuel prices.
Indonesia raised fuel prices by more than 25 percent on May 24, the first increase in almost three years, to cut subsidy costs and lure investors back to the nation's bonds and currency.
The government boosted the price of gasoline by 33 percent to 6,000 rupiah (64 cents) a liter, Energy Minister Purnomo Yusgiantoro said at a briefing in Jakarta May 23. Diesel will increase by 28 percent to 5,500 rupiah a liter, while kerosene will cost 25 percent more at 2,500 rupiah.
To contact the reporters on this story: Christian Schmollinger in Singapore at christian.s@bloomberg.net; Gavin Evans in Wellington at gavinevans@bloomberg.net
Last Updated: May 26, 2008 04:49 EDT
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