Sept. 3 (Bloomberg) -- Boeing Co., the world's second- largest commercial aircraft maker, is betting that more than a third of its machinists will accept a combined offer of pay and bonuses, averting a strike that would stop production and further delay the 787 Dreamliner.

About 27,000 workers in Washington state, Oregon and Kansas are voting today on whether to accept the contract or follow the International Association of Machinists and Aerospace Workers' recommendation to reject it and walk off the job. A strike would begin at 12:01 a.m. Seattle time tomorrow if two-thirds of Boeing's largest union turn down the offer.

A walkout may keep the 787, Boeing's most successful new plane, from flying this year and stymie efforts to deliver a record $275 billion in orders as energy prices spur airlines to buy new, more fuel-efficient jets. Chicago-based Boeing offered an 11 percent raise over three years, plus bonuses that include $2,500 if the deal is ratified today by at least half the voters.

Boeing's refusal to go along with changes the union sought on using outside vendors was enough to convince 21-year machinist Art Schilling to vote to strike.

``We're not asking for the moon; what we're asking for is a fair shake,'' Schilling said today after casting his ballot at the union hall outside Boeing's Renton, Washington, factory, where 737s are built. Schilling makes tools that hold the planes in place so the sections can be riveted together.

Hundreds of machinists marched together from Boeing's factories to vote at union halls on their breaks, some carrying signs saying, ``Out the gate 2008'' and ``Go fly this, Kight,'' referring to Doug Kight, Boeing's lead negotiator. Polls close at 6 p.m. Seattle time, with results expected about two hours later, the union said.

Age Wildcard

One wildcard is a change in the union's demographics since the last contract in 2005, when more than 18,000 workers walked out. Back then, 37 machinists were under age 30. Now there are 2,300 -- about 10 percent of the IAM membership in Boeing's main Seattle manufacturing hub -- because Boeing has recalled laid-off workers and hired new employees.

``The determining factor is going to be the new hires,'' Tim Limestall, who has worked for Boeing for 23 years, said after voting to strike at the Renton union hall. ``They're younger and a lot of them come from non-union shops.''

Boeing's hiring spree since the last contract has cut the average age of machinists to 46 from 49. The average wage fell in the past year by $1 an hour to $26. The company's Aug. 28 final offer would give the average machinist $34,000 in extra pay over three years.

Today's vote also may test workers' resolve to seek greater job security as Boeing uses more outside vendors to build large sections of planes and ship them to Seattle for assembly.

`More Resolved'

``This is to a certain extent a test for the machinists to see how good a job they've done socializing the younger workers into the IAM,'' said John Budd, a professor of industrial relations at the University of Minnesota in Minneapolis. The question is whether they ``are willing to fight for pension benefits and retiree medical coverage and those types of issues, or whether they're more focused on salary and job-security issues.''

While the average salary is about $54,000 a year, more than 4,000 machinists make less than $30,000, the union's Kelliher said. The typical Seattle-area machinist starts at $12.72 to $28.22 an hour, which would advance $2.28 an hour under Boeing's offer.

Tom Wroblewski, president of the IAM's District 751 in Seattle, said the younger workers seem to be united with older machinists and ``more resolved than we'd anticipated'' to strike.

Union's Demands

The union wanted at least a 13 percent wage increase, higher pension payments, no changes to healthcare and the ability to take back some of the work that's being done by outside vendors now, Wroblewski said in an interview today.

Boeing is ``working hard to understand and address the desires and needs of our newest generation of employees,'' said Kight.

Boeing rose 20 cents to $66.07 at 4 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading. It has dropped 35 percent since October, when the first of three Dreamliner delays was announced due to parts shortages and incomplete work by suppliers.

Boeing planned to fly the 787 in November and deliver it in next year's third quarter, at least 14 months later than first planned. If a strike exceeded a week, Boeing would ``probably would not'' manage to meet the revised schedule, said analyst Paul Nisbet of JSA Research Inc., an aerospace equity analysis firm in Newport, Rhode Island.

$120 Million a Day

Boeing has sold 895 Dreamliners worth about $155 billion, pitching its light weight to airlines as a way to save fuel. Toulouse, France-based Airbus SAS, whose main new-plane program, the A380, takes a different approach by putting 525 passengers on a larger aircraft, has built more jets than Boeing every year since 2003.

A 30-day strike this year would reduce Boeing earnings by about 30 cents a share, Macquarie Research Equities analyst Rob Stallard in New York estimates. Howard Rubel, an analyst at Jefferies & Co. in New York, predicts a strike may cost $120 million a day in lost revenue. A 28-day strike in September 2005 shaved about $300 million from second-half earnings that year.

Boeing profit may rise to $5.81 a share this year from $5.26 in 2007, based on the average of 20 analyst estimates in a Bloomberg survey. The union says workers haven't had raises, except for cost-of-living increases, since 2004 and deserve to share in Boeing's $10.7 billion in profits since then.

``Everyone knew the company wasn't healthy after 9/11 and we had to work to improve that,'' machinist Limestall said, adding that workers had made ``sacrifices'' to boost plane production and lower costs. ``And so we expected to receive.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Susanna Ray in Seattle at sray7@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 3, 2008 19:57 EDT