July 7 (Bloomberg) -- The U.S. raised its forecast for crude-oil prices this year by 2.8 percent on speculation that the global economy and fuel demand will recover.

West Texas Intermediate crude oil, the U.S. benchmark, will average $60.35 a barrel in 2009, up from last month’s forecast of $58.70, the Energy Department said in its monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook. That’s down 39 percent from an average of $99.57 a barrel in 2008.

“Volatility is not going to go away, which makes it very tough to forecast what prices are going to do,” said Tancred Lidderdale, a government economist in Washington who supervised the monthly outlook. “Uncertainty about the economy is creating these volatile conditions.”

Regular gasoline, averaged nationwide, will cost $2.49 a gallon from April through September, according to the report from the Energy Information Administration, the department’s statistical arm. The retail price is down from $3.81 a gallon last summer and up from $2.47 estimated last month.

“It looks like gasoline prices have peaked for the summer,” Lidderdale said. “We have ample gasoline supplies and it looks like that will be the case all summer.”

Diesel at the pump will average $2.47 a gallon during the driving season, up 2.9 percent from June’s forecast of $2.40. Prices will be 43 percent lower than during the same period last year, according to the government.

Global Consumption

World oil consumption will increase 170,000 barrels from the June forecast to an average of 83.85 million barrels a day this year, the report showed. The estimate is 1.56 million barrels a day lower than demand in 2008.

“A 100,000- or 200,000-barrel change in the demand forecast is not a lot to hang your hat on,” Lidderdale said. “We are still looking for a major drop in demand.”

Global oil use in 2010 will increase 940,000 barrels a day to an average 84.79 million barrels, up 380,000 barrels from last month’s forecast.

U.S. oil demand will average 18.85 million barrels a day in 2009, down 650,000 barrels a day from 2008. The forecast was reduced by 10,000 barrels from last month’s report.

Crude oil production by the 12 members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries declined 100,000 barrels to an average 28.56 million barrels a day in June, the report showed. Nigerian production dropped 100,000 barrels a day to 1.6 million barrels, according to the report.

Non-OPEC Output

Non-OPEC production will rise 0.7 percent to 50.14 million barrels a day this year, as increased output in Brazil, the U.S., Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan offsets declines in Mexico, the North Sea and Russia, according to the report.

The U.S. will produce 5.23 million barrels of crude oil a day in 2009, up 5.4 percent from 2008, the EIA said. Output will rise 2.5 percent to 5.36 million in 2010 because of new offshore fields in the Gulf of Mexico.

To contact the reporter on this story: Mark Shenk in New York at mshenk1@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: July 7, 2009 15:27 EDT