By Brian K. Sullivan and Camilla Hall
Sept. 8 (Bloomberg) -- Ike smashed into northeastern Cuba on a course that may take the hurricane through the center of the island and into the Gulf of Mexico, threatening to keep shut U.S. oil installations battered by Gustav a week ago.
``The destruction in Cuba is going to be extensive,'' Matthew Rinde, a meteorologist at Accuweather.com, said today in a telephone interview from State College, Pennsylvania. ``Once it gets back out over the water, it should re-strengthen.''
Ike, which killed 47 people in Haiti, according to Agence France-Presse, may keep U.S. oil and gas production closed until at least mid-September, analysts said. The Gulf is home to more than a quarter of U.S. oil production, and the National Hurricane Center's five-day projection for Ike shows the system moving toward coastal waters near the Louisiana-Texas border.
``A lot of them are still shut in, and the concerns might be, do we want to start up operations and spend the money to ferry and fly crews back out only to pull them back in a couple of days,'' said Jim Rouiller, a meteorologist with Planalytics Inc. in Wayne, Pennsylvania. ``Production may be curtailed a bit this week.''
Energy producers reported that personnel from 10 rigs and 202 production platforms have been evacuated, the Minerals Management Service said yesterday on its Web site. There are about 717 manned production platforms in the Gulf of Mexico.
Crude Oil Drops
Crude oil for October delivery dropped 60 cents, or 0.6 percent, to $105.63 a barrel as of 12 p.m. on the New York Mercantile Exchange. Prices are up 38 percent from a year ago.
As of 11 a.m. Miami time, Ike was a Category 2 on the five- step Saffir-Simpson scale of intensity, with sustained winds of 100 miles (160 kilometers) per hour, after weakening earlier today from Category 3, the U.S. National Hurricane Center said on its Web site. It was about 290 miles east-southeast of Havana, moving west at 14 mph, and should be back over water later today, the center said.
On its current track, the storm will likely move over western Cuba tomorrow and emerge into the southeastern Gulf by tomorrow night.
``A Category 3 appears likely based on its projected track; all lights are green for rapid strengthening once it gets into the Gulf,'' Rouiller said by telephone. ``My only wild card is how much Cuba will hurt Ike.''
Cuba Evacuations
CNN reported almost 900,000 people were evacuated in Cuba. The Cuban government issued a hurricane warning for the provinces of Guantanamo west through Matanzas. A tropical-storm warning and a hurricane watch were in effect for the provinces of La Habana, Ciudad de Habana, Pinar del Rio and the Isle of Youth.
Cuba may receive 20 inches (51 centimeters) of rain that could trigger flooding and mudslides, the hurricane center said.
In the Florida Keys, officials let a mandatory evacuation order expire because Ike's most severe winds should miss the island chain, according to a statement by the city of Key West.
A tropical-storm warning and a hurricane watch continues for the Keys from Ocean Reef south to the Dry Tortugas, the statement said. A tropical-storm watch was issued for southwestern Florida's Gulf waters from East Cape Sable to Bonita Beach, according to the hurricane center.
``They're not saying people should come back yet,'' said Blaire Heusdens, spokeswoman for the Florida Division of Emergency Management in Tallahassee.
Residents who evacuated over the weekend should be able to return home by Sept. 13, or perhaps a day or two earlier, the statement said. Ike should have passed the region completely by Sept. 10.
Warnings Posted
The Bahamas maintained a tropical-storm warning for Andros and Ragged islands, while a tropical-storm watch was in effect for Jamaica and the Cayman Islands.
A warning means tropical-storm or hurricane conditions are expected within 24 hours. A watch means the conditions are possible within 36 hours.
Louisiana Governor Bobby Jindal declared a state of emergency yesterday in preparation for Ike that could make landfall by Sept. 13. New Orleans residents were warned to prepare to evacuate again, after fleeing as Gustav approached last week, three years after Hurricane Katrina devastated the city. New Orleans was spared the worst of Gustav.
``Hurricane Ike may impact the coastal parishes of Louisiana with hurricane strength winds, wave surges, high tides, torrential rain and tornado activity,'' Jindal said in a statement on the state's Web site.
Gustav and Ike followed closely behind Fay and Hanna in tracking through the Caribbean. The death toll from the four storms has risen to at least 600 in hard-hit Haiti, AFP said. As many as 600,000 people may need assistance in Haiti, the United Nations humanitarian affairs chief John Holmes said.
To contact the reporters on this story: Brian K. Sullivan in Boston at bsullivan10@bloomberg.net; Camilla Hall in London at chall24@bloomberg.net.
Last Updated: September 8, 2008 12:50 EDT
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