Jan. 7 (Bloomberg) -- Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama has a 91 percent chance of winning the New Hampshire primary election and is likely to capture his party's nomination, online traders say.

Odds that the 46-year-old Illinois senator will prevail in tomorrow's vote jumped after he won last week's Iowa Democratic caucuses, while wagers on New York Senator Hillary Clinton, the third-placed finisher in Iowa, tumbled. Online traders say Clinton, 60, has an 8.7 percent chance of winning in New Hampshire, according to futures contracts at Intrade, a unit of Dublin-based Trade Exchange Network Co. Bettors give former North Carolina Senator John Edwards, who placed second in Iowa, only a 0.1 percent chance of victory in New Hampshire.

Before the Iowa vote, traders gave Obama a 34 percent chance of victory in the New Hampshire primary and a 1-in-4 likelihood of becoming the presidential nominee. That compared with Clinton's odds of 60 percent in New Hampshire and almost two-thirds likelihood of gaining the party's presidential nomination. Now, Obama has a 67 percent chance of becoming the Democratic nominee, while Clinton's odds have fallen to 29 percent, according to Trade Exchange, which runs both Intrade and TradeSports.com.

``It looks like Hillary will lose,'' said Mike Lenhoff, who helps oversee about $36 billion as chief strategist at Brewin Dolphin Securities Ltd. in London. ``I am genuinely surprised at the groundswell of support that Obama has received and the crest of popularity he has ridden on.''

Republican Contenders

Among the Republican Party's presidential contenders, John McCain, the 71-year-old senator from Arizona, leads with an 86 percent chance of winning in New Hampshire tomorrow, according to wagers on Intrade. Odds on Mitt Romney, a former Massachusetts governor, stood at 14 percent.

Mike Huckabee, former governor of Arkansas and winner of the Republican caucuses in Iowa, trails with 0.7 percent.

Contract prices on Intrade reflect the odds of a candidate winning and are all-or-nothing wagers. A contract showing a 50 percent chance a candidate will win the New Hampshire primary, for example, would cost $5 and would pay $10. If the candidate doesn't win, it would settle at zero.

On the Iowa Electronic Markets, run by the business school at the University of Iowa in Iowa City, Obama's chances of winning the nomination jumped to 66 percent, according to yesterday's closing prices, from 47 percent on Jan. 3. Clinton's chances dropped to 32 percent from 51 percent.

Poll Numbers

In a USA Today/Gallup poll taken after the results of the Iowa caucuses were reported, Obama and McCain held the advantage with the New Hampshire voters before tomorrow's primary.

Obama has a 13 percentage-point lead over Clinton; three weeks ago, they were tied, according to the poll published today in USA Today. McCain gained four points over rival Romney, who held a seven-point edge in mid-December, while Huckabee was third. The poll surveyed 776 New Hampshire residents who said they are likely to vote in the Republican primary tomorrow and 778 voters who expected to cast ballots in the Democratic primary, the newspaper said.

The margin of error was plus or minus 4 percentage points.

Markets may be better prognosticators than surveys of public opinions because markets try to determine who will win, according to Justin Wolfers, a professor of business and public policy at the Wharton School of Business at the University of Pennsylvania.

``Research from past elections says political prediction markets are at least as accurate as polls and probably more accurate,'' said Wolfers. ``If you think momentum effects are important, you can predict them today in markets. It's the dynamic aspect that is most important.''

To contact the reporter on this story: Michael Tsang in New York at mtsang1@bloomberg.net or; Eric Martin in New York at emartin21@bloomberg.net.

Last Updated: January 7, 2008 17:46 EST