Sept. 29 (Bloomberg) -- General Motors Corp., Ford Motor Co. and Chrysler LLC continued their sales slide in the U.S. this month as tight credit and the financial crisis sap consumer demand.

Toyota Motor Corp., Honda Motor Co. and Nissan Motor Co. also tumbled, making September just the third time in 2008 for all three Japanese automakers to fall. They may be down at least 20 percent, Wachovia Capital Markets analyst Richard Kwas said in a Sept. 24 note.

An industrywide drop would extend the U.S. sales slump to 11 months, the longest since a 14-month stretch that ran through December 1991, research firm Autodata Corp. says. New vehicles sold at an annual rate of 13 million in September, down 17 percent from a year earlier, based on a Bloomberg News survey of 36 analysts and economists. Automakers post results on Oct. 1.

``Tighter credit will play a role in sales for the rest of this year and into next year,'' said Haig Stoddard, a Troy, Michigan-based forecaster for consulting firm Global Insight Inc. ``We don't think sales will rebound until next year.''

GM, the largest U.S. automaker, will be down 26 percent, while No. 3 Chrysler's slide will be 34 percent, based on the average estimates of 5 analysts. Ford, the second-biggest in the U.S., may say sales slipped 22 percent.

September had 24 selling days, one fewer than a year earlier. That means some automakers will post unadjusted results about 4 percentage points lower than analysts' adjusted estimates.

An annual sales rate of 13 million for September ``seems right to me,'' Ford worldwide marketing chief Jim Farley told reporters after a Sept. 22 media dinner.

`Very Stressed Industry'

``The first couple of weeks, it was a very stressed industry,'' before a possible sales rebound in the month's second half, he said.

That strain is extending to Asian-based automakers, which rely less on trucks than their U.S. counterparts and haven't been affected as much by near-record fuel prices. Honda's sales rose 1.7 percent through August and Nissan's gained 1 percent, compared with an 11 percent industrywide slide. Toyota's fell 7.8 percent.

``Relative to prior months, weakness appears to be more protracted at the Japanese 3, likely due to deteriorating markets on the U.S. coasts,'' Deutsche Bank analyst Rod Lache in New York wrote in a Sept. 24 report.

Kwas told clients in his note that ``Asian makes (yes, even Honda) will fall double digits.'' Asian-based automakers together ``could realize an estimated 20-40 percent'' decline in September, he wrote.

September's results may reflect a shift in the forces driving the falling sales, as costlier borrowing and tremors in the U.S. financial system displace rising fuel prices.

Financial Meltdown

``Who would thought we'd witness what has happened?'' Ford sales analyst George Pipas said in an interview earlier this month, referring to the financial meltdown that included the bankruptcy of Lehman Brothers Holdings Inc. and the planned sale of Merrill Lynch & Co. to Bank of America Corp.

Loan rejections are rising for all categories of U.S. auto buyers, even those with the best credit, CNW Marketing Research said on Sept. 25. Through Sept. 20, 81 percent of applications for the lowest-risk, or prime, loans were approved, down from 91 percent a year earlier, the Bandon, Oregon-based firm said.

``The upheaval in the credit markets increases the likelihood that 2009 industry sales will decline,'' Kwas wrote.

GM Treasurer Walter Borst played down any fallout from the crisis.

``Based on what I've seen to date, it hasn't really impacted sales in September materially,'' he said in a Sept. 24 presentation. The Detroit-based automaker extended ``employee pricing'' discounts for all buyers through this month, after planning a two-week program to end on Sept. 2.

Stuart Schorr, a spokesman for Auburn Hills, Michigan-based Chrysler, declined to comment about September auto sales.

The weakening U.S. economy, which has lost jobs in each month of 2008, adds to the strain on the industry. September non-farm payrolls likely fell by 105,000, based on 69 economist estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

Weakening Economy

Consumer spending also was weakening even before the credit crisis intensified. The U.S. economy grew at a 2.8 percent annual rate in the second quarter, down from a preliminary estimate of 3.3 percent, the Commerce Department said Sept. 26.

GM fell $1.25, or 13 percent to $8.51 at 4:02 p.m. in New York Stock Exchange composite trading, while Dearborn, Michigan- based Ford dropped 64 cents, or 13 percent, to $4.17. U.S. stocks plunged after the U.S. House of Representatives rejected the $700 billion financial-rescue plan intended to restore confidence in the banking system.

GM's 66 percent slide this year is the steepest among the 30 stocks in the Dow Jones Industrial Average.

GM's 8.375 percent note due July 2033 fell 4 cents to 40.5 cents on the dollar, yielding 21 percent, according to Trace, the bond-price reporting system of the Financial Industry Regulatory Authority. Ford's 7.45 percent note due July 2031 slid 10.5 cents to 44 cents on the dollar, yielding 17 percent.

Credit-default swaps on GM debt rose 250 basis points to 3,444 basis points, according to CMA Datavision in London. Ford's jumped 240 basis points to 2,353 basis points.

The contracts are designed to protect bondholders against default. A rise in the price indicates a decline in the perception of a company's credit quality.

The following table provides estimates for car and light- truck sales in the U.S. Estimates for companies are percentage changes from September 2007. Forecasts for the seasonally adjusted annual rate, or SAAR, are in millions of vehicles.

The SAAR average is based on forecasts from six analysts and a survey of 30 economists. The analysts' estimates are based on daily selling rates. September had 24 selling days.

Analyst                   GM       Ford      Chrysler   SAAR

Richard Kwas              -30%     -28%      -35%       12.9
 (Wachovia)
Rod Lache                 -25%     -17%      -35%       12.8
 (Deutsche Bank)
Himanshu Patel            -27%     -25%      -30%       12.9
 (JPMorgan)
Patrick Archambault       -23%     -15%      -33%       13
  (Goldman Sachs)
Itay Michaeli             N/A       N/A       N/A       12.7
   (Citigroup)
Jesse Toprak              -24%     -25%      -37%       N/A
  (Edmunds.com)
Tom Libby                  N/A      N/A       N/A       13
  (J.D. Power)

Bloomberg Economists       N/A      N/A       N/A       13.5
  (Average of 30 estimates)

AVERAGE:                   -26%    -22%       -34%      13

To contact the reporter on this story: Bill Koenig in Southfield, Michigan, at wkoenig@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: September 29, 2008 16:23 EDT