June 12 (Bloomberg) -- Confidence among U.S. consumers probably rose for a fourth straight month in June, reflecting signs that the worst recession in at least five decades may end this year, economists said before a private report.

The Reuters/University of Michigan preliminary index of consumer sentiment increased to 69.5, the highest level in nine months, according to the median estimate of 62 economists in a Bloomberg News survey. The final reading for May was 68.7.

Job losses are slowing, recent reports show housing and manufacturing -- the two worst parts of the economy -- are stabilizing, and the Obama administration’s fiscal stimulus may help shore up consumer demand. Still, a record loss of wealth is causing Americans to boost savings, and unemployment is forecast to keep rising, so a recovery will be slow to take hold.

“I don’t think consumers are prepared as yet to bet the farm,” said Michael Gregory, a senior economist at BMO Capital Markets in Toronto. While recent data have been encouraging, he said, the economy is in a pattern of “cautious gains.”

The confidence report is due at 10 a.m. Washington time. Forecasts in the Bloomberg survey ranged from 65 to 73.2.

Separately, a Labor Department report may show prices of imported goods increased 1.4 percent in May after a 1.6 percent gain the month before, according to the survey.

The Standard & Poor’s 500 Stock Index has soared 40 percent since March 9 -- when it hit 676.53, the lowest level in more than 12 years -- amid evidence the worst of the downturn has passed. The index closed at 944.89 yesterday in New York.

Jobless Claims

A report yesterday from Labor showed fewer Americans filed claims for unemployment benefits last week, indicating the deepest job cuts may be subsiding even as companies hold off on hiring. Initial jobless claims fell by 24,000 to 601,000 in the week ended June 6, the lowest level since January. The number of people collecting benefits, meanwhile, rose to 6.82 million in the prior week, reaching a record for a 19th straight time.

The unemployment rate rose to 9.4 percent in May, the highest level since 1983, partly because more people joined the labor force to look for work, according to Labor data released June 5. Payrolls fell by 345,000, the smallest drop in eight months.

Some companies are expressing optimism.

“People are gradually becoming less afraid and as they become less they afraid they are willing to take a little bit more money out of their pocket,” Jeffrey Katz, chief executive officer of educational toy maker LeapFrog Enterprises Inc., said June 8 in a Bloomberg Television interview. “It’s a challenging year. I would say things are getting a little bit better from the gloom and doom holiday 2008.”

Seeking Bargains

Wal-Mart Stores Inc., the biggest retailer, projected last month that U.S. comparable-store sales may rise as much as 3 percent in the 13 weeks through July 31 as Americans seek discounted merchandise.

The pending demise of thousands of Chrysler LLC and General Motors Corp. dealers attracted customers back to showrooms, helping retail sales rise for the first time in three months in May, the Commerce Department said yesterday in Washington.

Personal spending, which accounts for 70 percent of the economy, will fall at a 0.6 percent annual pace in the current quarter and rise at an average 1.1 percent pace in the last six months of the year, according to the median forecast of economists surveyed this month. The projections were down from last month’s estimates.

For all of 2009, purchases will drop 0.7 percent, the worst performance since 1974, the survey showed.

                        Bloomberg Survey

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Import U of Mich

Prices Conf.

MOM% Index ==============================================

Date of Release 06/12 06/12 Observation Period May June P ---------------------------------------------- Median 1.4% 69.5 Average 1.5% 69.3 High Forecast 3.2% 73.2 Low Forecast -0.2% 65.0 Number of Participants 52 62 Previous 1.6% 68.7 ---------------------------------------------- 4CAST Ltd. 1.3% 70.0 Action Economics 2.0% 70.0 AIG Investments 1.0% 67.0 Aletti Gestielle SGR --- 72.8 Ameriprise Financial Inc 1.4% 70.0 Argus Research Corp. 1.5% 65.0 Bank of Tokyo- Mitsubishi 2.9% 73.2 Bantleon Bank AG 1.5% 69.2 Barclays Capital 2.0% 71.0 BBVA 2.5% 69.8 BMO Capital Markets 1.4% 70.0 BNP Paribas 1.0% 70.0 Briefing.com --- 70.5 Calyon --- 69.0 CIBC World Markets --- 70.0 CITIC Securities 1.5% 69.0 Commerzbank AG 1.2% 66.0 Credit Suisse 1.0% 71.0 Daiwa Securities America --- 70.0 DekaBank 1.1% 71.0 Desjardins Group 3.0% 70.0 Deutsche Bank Securities 1.0% 68.5 Deutsche Postbank AG 1.2% 69.2 DZ Bank 1.8% 68.0 First Trust Advisors 2.8% 71.0 Fortis 1.0% --- FTN Financial --- 69.0 Helaba --- 70.0 Herrmann Forecasting 1.1% 70.3 High Frequency Economics 1.8% 71.0 Horizon Investments 1.2% 67.0 HSBC Markets 1.5% 67.0 IDEAglobal 1.3% 70.0 IHS Global Insight --- 71.0 Informa Global Markets -0.2% 68.5 ING Financial Markets 1.3% 67.5 Intesa-SanPaulo 1.3% 68.5 J.P. Morgan Chase 1.5% 69.0 Janney Montgomery Scott L 1.8% --- Johnson Illington Advisor 1.5% 69.0 JPMorgan’s Private Wealth --- 68.0 Landesbank Berlin 1.6% 68.2 Landesbank BW 1.2% 68.0 Merrill Lynch 2.2% 68.0 MFC Global Investment Man 0.8% 69.0 Mizuho Securities 1.2% 69.5 Moody’s Economy.com 1.4% 69.5 National Bank Financial --- 71.0 Natixis --- 69.7 Newedge 1.0% 69.5 Raymond James --- 69.5 RBS Securities Inc. --- 69.5 Ried, Thunberg & Co. 0.4% 68.5 Schneider Foreign Exchang 1.2% 67.0 Societe Generale --- 69.0 Stone & McCarthy Research 3.2% 68.0 TD Securities --- 72.0 Thomson Reuters/IFR 1.4% --- Tullett Prebon 1.2% 72.8 UBS Securities LLC 1.9% 70.0 Unicredit MIB 1.0% --- University of Maryland 1.8% 69.5 Wachovia Corp. 2.4% --- Wells Fargo & Co. 2.0% 70.0 WestLB AG 1.8% 68.5 Westpac Banking Co. 1.5% 65.0 Wrightson Associates 0.4% 68.5 ==============================================

To contact the reporter on this story:
Courtney Schlisserman in Washington 
cschlisserma@bloomberg.net

Last Updated: June 12, 2009 00:01 EDT